# Will France inflation rate YoY prel for April 2026 be above 1.9%

> Closed. Final outcome: Above 1.9%. Last odds frozen 8 d ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frcpiprel
Updated: 2026-05-30T19:20:12.869Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-29

## Headline

- Leader: Above 1.7% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 1.8% at 97%
- Outcomes: 11 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (11 contracts)
- 24h volume: $44
- Resolved: Above 1.9%

## Bound contracts (11)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 1.7% | 97¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t1.7 |
| Above 1.8% | 97¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t1.8 |
| Above 1.9% | 97¢ | — | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t1.9 |
| Above 2.0% | 90¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.0 |
| Above 2.7% | 9¢ | — | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.7 |
| Above 2.8% | 5¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.8 |
| Above 2.2% | 4¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.2 |
| Above 2.6% | 4¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.6 |
| Above 2.1% | 3¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.1 |
| Above 2.3% | 3¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.3 |
| Above 2.4% | 3¢ | — | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-inflation-rate-yoy-prel-for-may-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrcpiprel-26jun12-t2.4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 1.7% | Above 1.8% | Above 1.9% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 44 | 24 | 24 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market is pricing in a 97% probability that France's preliminary consumer price inflation for April 2026 will exceed 1.9% year-over-year. The high probability reflects confidence that inflation has not fallen below this threshold, likely driven by elevated energy costs, wage pressures, or sticky service-sector inflation across the eurozone. The main downside risk would be if deflationary pressures from energy markets or weak demand pushed actual inflation materially lower. The resolution depends on the official INSEE (French statistical agency) inflation data release, which typically occurs in early May for the prior month's preliminary estimate. Key factors include recent energy price movements, wage negotiation outcomes in France, eurozone-wide monetary policy effects, and comparative inflation trends across EU member states.

### Key factors

- Energy commodity prices in May 2026, as oil and gas costs directly affect headline inflation
- Recent wage agreements and labor cost trends in French services and manufacturing sectors
- Eurozone-wide ECB policy stance and its transmission effects on French price pressures
- Actual INSEE preliminary inflation reading when released, which will definitively resolve the contract
- Comparative inflation data from neighboring eurozone economies that share similar demand and supply dynamics

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frcpiprel
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=frcpiprel
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.