French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026
Leader sits at 77% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
who will announce a run in 2
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$102
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 23, 2027
334 days
Venue
Polymarket
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Jordan Bardella
0x69b979…34ee
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Manuel Bompard
0x470e39…4845
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Olivier Faure
0x8c0f92…3304
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann
0x6da385…b4c8
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Valérie Pécresse
0xe815a8…1b56
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Élisabeth Borne
0xbd87b6…f875
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Marine Le Pen
0xb8d4f6…a1a4
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: François Bayrou
0xb7e874…7017
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Carole Delga
0xb104e1…9af5
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: François Hollande
0xaef8da…9621
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Michel Barnier
0xa9a576…4ccb
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Yaël Braun-Pivet
0xa999a2…15be
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Gérald Darmanin
0x9b8b2f…158b
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Dominique de Villepin
0x928d82…fb80
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Sébastien Lecornu
0x865539…2b03
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Jean Castex
0x5a3e6a…ecdd
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Éric Zemmour
0x4ee4bd…2941
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Bernard Cazeneuve
0x1d1e00…82a8
French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026?: Mathilde Panot
0x09de89…ef17
What moved the line
- May 21who will announce a run in 2026?: Élisabeth Borne↓28pp46→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 21who will announce a run in 2026?: Yaël Braun-Pivet↓16pp26→10¢ · Polymarket
- May 21who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann↑15pp57→72¢ · Polymarket
- May 20who will announce a run in 2026?: Marine Le Pen↓12pp49→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 20who will announce a run in 2026?: Manuel Bompard↓11pp17→6¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In election 2026
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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