# French Presidential Election: who will announce a run in 2026

> who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann leads at 76%, runner-up 76% across 19 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 46 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/french-presidential-election-who-announce-run
Updated: 2026-05-24T23:20:08.254Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-23

## Headline

- Leader: who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann at 76%
- Runner-up: who will announce a run in 2026?: Dominique de Villepin at 76%
- Outcomes: 19 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $81

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann | 76¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x6da385ea2ebde3fa047d7044a2f9133003cd5bb48e76fc916295831e5607b4c8 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Dominique de Villepin | 76¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x928d82137cedb27c275a1b0a602a45ffaf998a8478682151a98686688302fb80 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Jordan Bardella | 73¢ | +1pp | $69 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x69b97988a4e73259657c49ff7e0681492f7b20c5588d3bed40e555d0607d34ee |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: François Hollande | 61¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xaef8daccd10bf6aab3cc46aceedd21b84bd54914e6a1e9c9ca74310f3d659621 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Marine Le Pen | 46¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xb8d4f645345265faa4b7ab8082e5610b695561c412fd86be89fcc3661122a1a4 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Éric Zemmour | 42¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x4ee4bd60d2df17f813bc2c2607592224952e0821e2a28d19a352773e4d462941 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Bernard Cazeneuve | 31¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x1d1e0032c3a7fd7c400c96b05d527fc177033d53f19bcb6daa3cee3a1f0482a8 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Jean Castex | 20¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x5a3e6a9c49a7d03c1a07bfe66133b19271344c51f58426618497c0985927ecdd |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Carole Delga | 17¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xb104e1e3bdbfb0b2fbf97cc5417cc61e48a57fd8407e7508a1431348f3229af5 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Sébastien Lecornu | 16¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x865539163ca6f68a5e5751f1b0c66f1667be9c3b082ae16cbb3c733751152b03 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Élisabeth Borne | 16¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xbd87b662935bd936d38c3786bb5914e4676ba0223dd1cd18403477aaefa5f875 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Gérald Darmanin | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x9b8b2f5b164df335787b29d955fd769f2af517b55bedff616e90d65acd67158b |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Yaël Braun-Pivet | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xa999a2283b56596c536d965e99cf29eb138be5828d741aa0adb8b5c4110615be |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: François Bayrou | 10¢ | ±0 | $6 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xb7e87432aca4030a0c7d9f38bbef04628a08329337489dc46c84de2aca0c7017 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Michel Barnier | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xa9a57689a34e9daea9a41d0c512a72c39d82b778d94276f4cbc7d9e3d3634ccb |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Valérie Pécresse | 10¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0xe815a82a541c0ae3723ddbbe5670012b02cd28a7daf339f5f49372ca01d21b56 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Olivier Faure | 8¢ | −14pp | $6 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x8c0f92f51d6a82150bb7eedb87181fce0a449257135dfe403d41c42f40113304 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Mathilde Panot | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x09de892192b41fbccc767282ede1e52a8b8bef6ea73eaf208dafc3dd42c4ef17 |
| who will announce a run in 2026?: Manuel Bompard | 6¢ | −11pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/french-presidential-election-who-will-announce-a-r-polymarket-0x470e393465fb3d9994b33680ac035a2ca724c63be0abd41da47b2dd22c204845 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann | who will announce a run in 2026?: Dominique de Villepin | who will announce a run in 2026?: Jordan Bardella |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 51 | 56 | 68 |
| 2026-05-18 | 50 | 64 | 68 |
| 2026-05-23 | 68 | 75 | 71 |
| 2026-05-24 | — | 77 | 72 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-21 · who will announce a run in 2026?: Élisabeth Borne −28pp 46→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · who will announce a run in 2026?: Yaël Braun-Pivet −16pp 26→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-21 · who will announce a run in 2026?: Raphaël Glucksmann +15pp 57→72¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · who will announce a run in 2026?: Olivier Faure −14pp 17→3¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-20 · who will announce a run in 2026?: Marine Le Pen −12pp 49→37¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/french-presidential-election-who-announce-run
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=french-presidential-election-who-announce-run
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.