2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot
Leader sits at 93% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 87%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
87¢
who will be on the ballot?:
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Apr 17, 2027
327 days
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: François Bayrou
0xe5ee6c…dd1e
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Michel Barnier
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Édouard Philippe
0xb73b23…0b35
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Gabriel Attal
0x888a5a…2896
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: François Hollande
0xec2ecb…4004
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Marine Le Pen
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Michel-Edouard Leclerc
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Raphaël Glucksmann
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Valérie Pécresse
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Sarah Knafo
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Manuel Bompard
0x257b72…2030
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Nathalie Arthaud
0x1c1591…4b63
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Laurent Wauquiez
0x15048c…1464
2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Jordan Bardella
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: François Asselineau
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Bally Bagayoko
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Éric Zemmour
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2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot?: Yaël Braun-Pivet
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What moved the line
- May 18who will be on the ballot?: Manuel Bompard↓19pp37→18¢ · Polymarket
- May 24who will be on the ballot?: Michel Barnier↑9pp2→11¢ · Polymarket
- May 22who will be on the ballot?: Sarah Knafo↓9pp38→29¢ · Polymarket
- May 22who will be on the ballot?: François Hollande↓7pp44→37¢ · Polymarket
- May 23who will be on the ballot?: Raphaël Glucksmann↓7pp53→46¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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Democratic odds to win the House fell 5¢ to 78¢ on Polymarket, while Republican odds rose 3¢ to 22¢ on Kalshi. The shift was driven by new polling showing improved Republican performance in swing districts. The generic ballot vote share is also tightening.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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