# 2027 French Presidential Election: who will be on the ballot

> who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon leads at 93%, runner-up 87% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 48 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/french-presidential-election-who-ballot
Updated: 2026-05-24T23:20:08.669Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-17

## Headline

- Leader: who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 93%
- Runner-up: who will be on the ballot?: Édouard Philippe at 87%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 93¢ | +2pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0xc86ceab1f863c01c5c56939ce1d8d4a8d5b306dbbc5f22e8ab032b8da2498020 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Édouard Philippe | 87¢ | — | $235 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0xb73b23b135bb40488931bbb9bde2a0a01c288c5896afb6d8baafcb3984840b35 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Nathalie Arthaud | 83¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x1c15916bb5d6edf0b8356181002ed964cd4e50da6a1a87b77d46f29ce73d4b63 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Jordan Bardella | 77¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x12ca66c6090f31d532fb447eb39ffb902d3e74faaa62cad15b61c17b510fea88 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Éric Zemmour | 52¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x09f2818bd46df79d6ced926b5c0756f3dd55d11d8c765d472495ceae987cab0c |
| who will be on the ballot?: Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 45¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x1fd89ab7f279be2048492ff71547cb057451687d8849e53230af63e3a69949b5 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Gabriel Attal | 42¢ | +1pp | $161 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x888a5a06d9d4d27167bc1a68ff0e42041ea6dd8ea23cf68634347fcbdade2896 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Raphaël Glucksmann | 39¢ | −5pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x7e5a574615c94e01e4ac3279b2d4b25c8d3635bc1c622bcf73ce2a3c7407096f |
| who will be on the ballot?: François Hollande | 38¢ | −2pp | $103 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0xec2ecbfc3000e9926526ed7ddc3fdf95a276318c561196eb755f7139d6204004 |
| who will be on the ballot?: François Asselineau | 32¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x0b3918ca6b169e13eecff0cddfe5d8a46bcee990da398c09d4d93145364bddfb |
| who will be on the ballot?: Sarah Knafo | 30¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x2fbe9fc729efe57573097006d0be63d7e30d7db54f91b598e23d3b58374adb45 |
| who will be on the ballot?: François Bayrou | 26¢ | — | $632 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0xe5ee6c17c3a43a0156a5e847a781b54b7cbb422ed5d006e01463ee1f8358dd1e |
| who will be on the ballot?: Marine Le Pen | 21¢ | ±0 | $65 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0xa4a28a02e05eae793b93bd30cc7eb203525804435d5bcfe4889ffce8d94adcff |
| who will be on the ballot?: Manuel Bompard | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x257b72bfc67e162d2d193c21ec9053ac8b63a76c9ab1c2bcaf69ca352d712030 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Laurent Wauquiez | 11¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x15048c3df5a0cc4e8795ebdd0fa2b160c96f78a0bd05d3ea47ab879b29581464 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Michel-Edouard Leclerc | 9¢ | — | $28 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0xedc7ce7e9c2afd7160dfa81e799c687e5ac1e3e53005025c7522f2111672cd69 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Valérie Pécresse | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x31510eb0eb92e4e7e9e073ee2a42a97a7114dc70816b7ecf3b7da02db83b65f3 |
| who will be on the ballot?: Michel Barnier | 8¢ | +9pp | $481 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x7a166362eaea131f9f9694d6c337138be78d26c9de2390692f37f60cffa9ef5d |
| who will be on the ballot?: Yaël Braun-Pivet | 7¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x090633c3fb080c7e6c222d65eb6a2bab523034e49d1842f80ebf002f56d5b95e |
| who will be on the ballot?: Bally Bagayoko | 6¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/2027-french-presidential-election-who-will-be-on-t-polymarket-0x0a85a041438ba6373149862bcac7af4f42f1702fa9dfc8c14134880a0c951a69 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | who will be on the ballot?: Jean-Luc Mélenchon | who will be on the ballot?: Nathalie Arthaud | who will be on the ballot?: Jordan Bardella |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | 90 | 83 | 72 |
| 2026-05-18 | 91 | — | 76 |
| 2026-05-19 | 91 | 84 | 73 |
| 2026-05-22 | 93 | 83 | 77 |
| 2026-05-23 | — | 83 | 78 |
| 2026-05-24 | — | — | 78 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-18 · who will be on the ballot?: Manuel Bompard −19pp 37→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-24 · who will be on the ballot?: Michel Barnier +9pp 2→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · who will be on the ballot?: Sarah Knafo −9pp 38→29¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-22 · who will be on the ballot?: François Hollande −7pp 44→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-23 · who will be on the ballot?: Raphaël Glucksmann −7pp 53→46¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/french-presidential-election-who-ballot
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=french-presidential-election-who-ballot
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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