# Will France GDP growth rate QoQ prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.3%

> Above -0.5% leads at 92%, runner-up 91% across 13 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frgdpqoqp
Updated: 2026-06-26T10:20:49.532Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above -0.5% at 92%
- Runner-up: Above -0.4% at 91%
- Outcomes: 13 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (13 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (13)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.5% | 92¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t-0.5 |
| Above -0.4% | 91¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| Above -0.3% | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t-0.3 |
| Above -0.2% | 85¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Above -0.1% | 74¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t-0.1 |
| Above 0.0% | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.1% | 39¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.1 |
| Above 0.2% | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.5% | 18¢ | +13pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.5 |
| Above 0.3% | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.3 |
| Above 0.4% | 11¢ | +7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Above 0.8% | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.8 |
| Above 0.6% | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-qoq-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpqoqp-26jul30-t0.6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -0.5% | Above -0.4% | Above -0.3% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 47 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-06-11 | 94 | 92 | 90 |
| 2026-06-18 | — | 92 | 90 |
| 2026-06-22 | 93 | 91 | 89 |
| 2026-06-24 | 92 | 92 | 90 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | 91 | 90 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-24 · Above 0.4% +7pp 4→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Above -0.1% −5pp 78→73¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market reflects a 94% probability that France's preliminary Q2 2026 GDP growth will exceed -0.5% quarter-over-quarter, indicating traders expect the economy to avoid a substantial contraction. The high probability reflects confidence in modest positive or near-flat growth rather than recession-level decline. Factors supporting this level include France's recent economic resilience and the relatively low threshold; downside risks include eurozone weakness, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected business/consumer activity. The resolution hinges on INSEE's preliminary GDP release for Q2 2026, typically published in early August 2026. The steep probability gradient across the contract band (78¢ at -0.1% to 94¢ at -0.5%) suggests market uncertainty clusters around slight negative to flat outcomes, not deeper contractions.

### Key factors

- INSEE preliminary Q2 2026 GDP release date (typically early August 2026) will definitively resolve the contract
- Market prices show 78% confidence in growth above -0.1%, dropping to 94% above -0.5%, indicating consensus uncertainty between slight contraction and flat growth
- The 0.4 percentage-point difference between the leading contract (94¢) and the -0.1% threshold (78¢) represents ~16¢ of probability mass, reflecting material divergence in central estimates
- Recent Q1 2026 preliminary data would have influenced current pricing; comparison to historical French QoQ GDP volatility (typically ±0.3%) is a baseline calibration
- Eurozone PMI releases, inflation data, and ECB policy signals between now and August 2026 will likely shift the probability as new growth indicators emerge

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=frgdpqoqp
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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