# Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above -0.2%

> Above -0.4% leads at 97%, runner-up 94% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frgdpyoyp
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.736Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: Above -0.4% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above -0.6% at 94%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -0.4% | 97¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t-0.4 |
| Above -0.6% | 94¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t-0.6 |
| Above -0.2% | 93¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t-0.2 |
| Above 0.0% | 92¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.2% | 84¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t0.2 |
| Above 0.4% | 72¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t0.4 |
| Above 0.6% | 44¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t0.6 |
| Above 0.8% | 26¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t0.8 |
| Above 1.0% | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t1.0 |
| Above 1.8% | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t1.8 |
| Above 1.4% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t1.4 |
| Above 1.6% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t1.6 |
| Above 2.0% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t2.0 |
| Above 2.2% | 3¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-france-gdp-growth-rate-yoy-prel-for-q2-2026-b-kalshi-kxfrgdpyoyp-26jul30-t2.2 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above -0.4% | Above -0.6% | Above -0.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-29 | 16 | 25 | 7 |
| 2026-06-11 | 93 | 94 | 92 |
| 2026-06-18 | 93 | 94 | 91 |
| 2026-06-19 | 94 | — | 92 |
| 2026-06-24 | 95 | 94 | 93 |
| 2026-06-25 | 97 | — | 92 |
| 2026-06-26 | — | — | 93 |

_22 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

Traders are pricing an 94% chance that France's preliminary year-over-year GDP growth for Q2 2026 will exceed -0.4%, suggesting they expect the economy to avoid a severe contraction. The high probability reflects expectations of modest economic resilience, though the tight clustering of prices around -0.2% to -0.4% indicates substantial uncertainty about whether growth will turn positive. The main drivers are labor market stability, consumer spending patterns, and industrial production trends across the eurozone. Resolution depends on the official GDP release from INSEE (France's statistical agency), typically published 30-45 days after quarter-end. Downside risks include prolonged weakness in manufacturing and services sectors, while upside catalysts include stronger-than-expected export demand or domestic investment recovery. The narrow gap between the -0.4% and -0.6% contracts (both at 94¢) suggests traders view anything weaker than -0.6% as unlikely but distinguish meaningfully between marginal contraction and stabilization near zero.

### Key factors

- Q2 2026 INSEE preliminary GDP release date and actual print relative to -0.4% threshold will directly resolve this contract
- Recent European Central Bank monetary policy decisions and eurozone growth trends shape baseline expectations for French economic momentum
- Labor force participation, unemployment rates, and wage growth data through Q2 2026 affect consumer purchasing power and domestic demand
- Manufacturing PMI and export order flows indicate whether industrial sectors can sustain activity above contraction levels
- The 92¢ price on the -0.2% threshold versus 94¢ on -0.4% suggests traders view stronger positive growth as less probable than avoiding severe contraction

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frgdpyoyp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=frgdpyoyp
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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