# Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 14% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:39.043Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-12-31

## Headline

- Probability: 14% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $6K

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | 14¢ | ±0 | $6K | polymarket | /markets/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany-before-polymarket-0x176e84015b1cc54d470836ef1d8a60753e17fa232d9b55e9aa8dde580d03f436 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 11 |
| 2026-04-25 | 14 |
| 2026-05-01 | 18 |
| 2026-05-07 | 15 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? −3pp 18→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The prediction reflects a 16% likelihood that Friedrich Merz ceases to be Chancellor of Germany before the end of 2026. Merz has held the position since early 2025 following federal elections, and this probability incorporates the political stability of the current coalition government against potential instabilities. The main factors driving the current level are the structural stability of Germany's governing coalition and the relative absence of immediate political crises that would force an early government collapse or Merz's removal. Key catalysts that could shift this probability include major coalition disagreements on fiscal or foreign policy, a significant electoral loss in upcoming state elections, or unexpected political scandals. The risk assessment reflects that while early chancellorial departures are uncommon in stable democracies, the current German political environment contains typical coalition pressures that occasionally force leadership changes.

### Key factors

- The stability of the current coalition government, which would need to fracture or withdraw support before Merz could be forced out
- Historical precedent in German politics showing chancellors typically serve full terms absent major crises or electoral defeats
- Upcoming state elections scheduled throughout 2026, whose results could destabilize the coalition if they show significant shifts in voter preferences
- Economic performance and fiscal policy disputes within the coalition, particularly regarding spending limits or EU-related decisions
- The absence of credible reports or structural indicators suggesting imminent government collapse as of May 2026

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=friedrich-merz-out-as-chancellor-of-germany

## License

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