# Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 42% across 19 contracts — refreshed 42 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frpresballot
Updated: 2026-07-12T22:20:50.135Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 42% (liquidity-weighted across 19 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (19 contracts)
- 24h volume: $26

## Bound contracts (19)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Édouard Philippe | 87¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-douard-philippe-appear-on-the-official-candid-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-ephi |
| Gabriel Attal | 41¢ | — | $10 | kalshi | /markets/will-gabriel-attal-appear-on-the-official-candidat-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-gatt |
| Bruno Retailleau | 77¢ | +42pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-bruno-retailleau-appear-on-the-official-candi-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-bret |
| Bernard Cazeneuve | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-bernard-cazeneuve-appear-on-the-official-cand-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-bcaz |
| Dominique de Villepin | 43¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-dominique-de-villepin-appear-on-the-official-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-dvil |
| Éric Zemmour | 72¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ric-zemmour-appear-on-the-official-candidate-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-ezem |
| François Asselineau | 7¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-franois-asselineau-appear-on-the-official-can-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-fass |
| François Hollande | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-franois-hollande-appear-on-the-official-candi-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-fhol |
| Fabien Roussel | 72¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-fabien-roussel-appear-on-the-official-candida-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-frou |
| François Ruffin | 30¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-franois-ruffin-appear-on-the-official-candida-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-fruf |
| Gérald Darmanin | 3¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-grald-darmanin-appear-on-the-official-candida-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-gdar |
| Jordan Bardella | 3¢ | −8pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jordan-bardella-appear-on-the-official-candid-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-jbar |
| Jérôme Guedj | 4¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jrme-guedj-appear-on-the-official-candidate-l-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-jgue |
| Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 91¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-jean-luc-mlenchon-appear-on-the-official-cand-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-jmel |
| Karim Bouamrane | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-karim-bouamrane-appear-on-the-official-candid-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-kbou |
| Marine Le Pen | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marine-le-pen-appear-on-the-official-candidat-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-mlep |
| Marine Tondelier | 20¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-marine-tondelier-appear-on-the-official-candi-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-mton |
| Nathalie Arthaud | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nathalie-arthaud-appear-on-the-official-candi-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-nart |
| Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 61¢ | +17pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-nicolas-dupont-aignan-appear-on-the-official-kalshi-kxfrpresballot-27jun30-ndup |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | 29 |
| 2026-07-11 | 35 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-11 · Bruno Retailleau +42pp 43→85¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan +17pp 46→63¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Gérald Darmanin −9pp 13→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-11 · Jordan Bardella −8pp 12→4¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This market estimates a 40% chance that Bruno Retailleau will officially register as a candidate for France's 2027 presidential election first round. Retailleau, a senior conservative politician and former Interior Minister, faces competing pressures: his prominent position within the Republican party could support a candidacy, but the party typically consolidates behind a single centrist or center-right contender rather than fielding multiple candidates. The probability sits below similar figures for Édouard Philippe (90%) and Éric Zemmour (72%), suggesting traders see meaningful barriers to his entry. The critical period will be late 2026 through early 2027, when formal candidacy declarations occur and party strategies crystallize. The final registration deadline and any evolving factional alignments within conservative politics will determine whether Retailleau pursues an independent run or steps back to support a unified slate.

### Key factors

- Retailleau's current political role and whether he maintains sufficient institutional backing to mount a credible campaign
- Historical patterns of center-right party fragmentation or consolidation in French presidential contests
- Statements or signals from Republican party leadership indicating their preferred candidate strategy and number of official nominees
- Formal candidacy registration deadline and any announced intentions by Retailleau himself between now and early 2027
- Relative polling strength of other conservative contenders like Édouard Philippe, which could influence whether Retailleau enters or defers

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frpresballot
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=frpresballot
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

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