# Will Philippe Brun win the primary to select the French pôle socialiste’s candidate for the 2027 presidential election

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 19% across 4 contracts — refreshed 50 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frpsnom
Updated: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.240Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-10-01

## Headline

- Probability: 19% (liquidity-weighted across 4 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $29

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raphaël Glucksmann | 27¢ | +1pp | $29 | kalshi | /markets/will-raphal-glucksmann-win-the-primary-to-select-t-kalshi-kxfrpsnom-26oct01-rglu |
| Boris Vallaud | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-boris-vallaud-win-the-primary-to-select-the-f-kalshi-kxfrpsnom-26oct01-bval |
| François Hollande | 8¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-franois-hollande-win-the-primary-to-select-th-kalshi-kxfrpsnom-26oct01-fhol |
| Olivier Faure | 5¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-olivier-faure-win-the-primary-to-select-the-f-kalshi-kxfrpsnom-26oct01-ofau |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | 15 |
| 2026-07-27 | 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | 30 |
| 2026-08-09 | 18 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-07 · Raphaël Glucksmann +4pp 25→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the estimated likelihood that Philippe Brun will emerge as the Socialist Party's official candidate for France's 2027 presidential election. Brun is positioned as a moderate alternative in a crowded primary field that includes Raphaël Glucksmann (13¢), Olivier Faure (20¢), and several former prime ministers. His 14% probability reflects limited current visibility compared to better-known candidates, though primary dynamics remain fluid. The party's selection process and endorsements from regional federations will significantly influence outcomes. Key catalysts include any formal campaign announcements, party convention decisions, and polling developments among socialist voters in the coming months leading to the primary vote.

### Key factors

- Brun currently has lower name recognition and media coverage than leading contenders like Glucksmann and Faure based on contract pricing disparities
- Olivier Faure's 20¢ contract indicates perceived frontrunner status, with other candidates (Glucksmann 13¢, Brun 14¢) clustered within narrow margins
- The primary outcome depends on Socialist Party internal voting mechanisms and endorsement patterns from regional party sections, which remain unpredictable
- Trading volume on Brun's contract is relatively moderate, suggesting limited market conviction and significant uncertainty remaining
- Former prime ministers like Cazeneuve and Hollande retain establishment credibility despite lower current odds, potentially fragmenting the moderate vote

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/frpsnom
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=frpsnom
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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