# Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027

> Argentina leads at 19%, runner-up 16% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ftacountries
Updated: 2026-07-10T22:20:52.509Z
Category: general · Topic: trump
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Argentina at 19%
- Runner-up: China at 16%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 19¢ | −7pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-argentina-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-arg |
| China | 16¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-china-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-chi |
| European Union | 16¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-european-u-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-eu |
| Taiwan | 15¢ | — | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-taiwan-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-tai |
| India | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-india-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-ind |
| Indonesia | 15¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-indonesia-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-indo |
| United Kingdom | 14¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-united-kin-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-uk |
| Kenya | 13¢ | +1pp | $500 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-kenya-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-ken |
| Switzerland | 10¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-trump-make-a-new-before-jan-1-2027-switzerlan-kalshi-kxftacountries-27-swi |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Argentina | China | European Union |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | 35 | — | — |
| 2026-07-08 | 26 | 20 | 14 |
| 2026-07-09 | 19 | — | 16 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-08 · Argentina −9pp 35→26¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-09 · Argentina −7pp 26→19¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This represents the probability that Trump will establish a new trade or diplomatic agreement with Argentina before January 1, 2027—currently priced at 19%, making it the leading outcome among nine possible countries. The relatively low level reflects the short timeframe (approximately 5.5 months remaining) and the typical pace of major trade negotiations, which often extend beyond six months. Market participants appear to view a China deal as comparably likely (16%), with European Union and India negotiations also showing material probability. The key driver affecting this probability would be any public announcement of serious ongoing negotiations, formal trade talks announcement, or geopolitical catalyst affecting US-Argentina relations. The biggest resolution catalyst would be Trump's stated timeline for trade deals or any official negotiation commencement before year-end; markets could also shift materially if other countries announce completed agreements, which would mechanically lower Argentina's probability in this winner-take-all structure.

### Key factors

- Trump's public statements or administration announcements about Argentina-specific trade negotiations or agreements
- The speed at which formal trade discussions typically progress to completion—most major deals require 6-12+ months of negotiation
- Whether geopolitical developments (currency crises, commodity prices, political changes in Argentina) create urgency for a US deal
- The competitive structure of this market—any completed deal with another country eliminates Argentina's winning probability entirely
- Historical precedent for Trump's deal-making speed and whether recent patterns suggest faster timeline than traditional trade negotiations

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ftacountries
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ftacountries
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/trump

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.