# Who will the FTC go after next

> Tesla leads at 10%, runner-up 10% across 5 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ftcnext
Updated: 2026-05-09T07:20:25.805Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: Tesla at 10%
- Runner-up: Microsoft at 10%
- Outcomes: 5 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (5 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (5)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 10¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-ftc-go-after-next-tesla-kalshi-kxftcnext-27-tsla |
| Microsoft | 10¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-ftc-go-after-next-microsoft-kalshi-kxftcnext-27-mfst |
| Amazon | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-ftc-go-after-next-amazon-kalshi-kxftcnext-27-amzn |
| Alphabet | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-ftc-go-after-next-alphabet-kalshi-kxftcnext-27-goog |
| Meta | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-the-ftc-go-after-next-meta-kalshi-kxftcnext-27-meta |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Tesla | Microsoft | Amazon |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 2026-04-20 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 2026-04-23 | 4 | 4 | — |
| 2026-04-30 | 4 | 6 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 3 | — | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 6 | — | — |
| 2026-05-03 | 9 | — | — |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Tesla +3pp 3→6¢ · kalshi
- 2026-05-03 · Tesla +3pp 6→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This reflects the current market estimate that Tesla will be the next company targeted by the FTC in their enforcement actions, priced at an 11% probability among the offered outcomes. Tesla has faced ongoing FTC scrutiny regarding consumer protection claims, particularly around Autopilot marketing and capabilities. The probability level suggests traders view this as a meaningful but not dominant scenario among competing alternatives. Factors that would shift this estimate include new evidence of deceptive practices, FTC staff recommendations for enforcement, or public signals from FTC leadership about priorities. The main catalyst would be official FTC action announcements or high-profile public investigations that narrow the field of potential targets, which typically occur on irregular schedules tied to staff investigations and commissioners' votes.

### Key factors

- Tesla's current FTC investigations center on Autopilot marketing claims and could advance to formal enforcement action based on staff findings
- The 11% price implies roughly 9-to-1 odds against Tesla being next, suggesting significant probability mass on competing targets
- FTC enforcement actions depend on internal investigation timelines and commission votes, not predetermined public calendars
- Recent FTC leadership statements about technology company enforcement priorities would indicate whether automotive companies are prioritized versus other sectors
- Each of the five offered outcomes in this market structure carries different baseline probabilities based on existing regulatory attention and investigation status

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ftcnext
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ftcnext

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.