# Will Keiko Fujimori be out as President of Peru before Jul 1, 2027

> Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 17%, runner-up 9% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fujimoriout-26jul
Updated: 2026-07-13T01:20:51.973Z
Category: politics
Status: active

## Headline

- Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 17%
- Runner-up: Before Jul 1, 2027 at 9%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 17¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keiko-fujimori-be-out-as-president-of-peru-be-kalshi-kxfujimoriout-26jul-28jan01 |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 9¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keiko-fujimori-be-out-as-president-of-peru-be-kalshi-kxfujimoriout-26jul-27jul01 |
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-keiko-fujimori-be-out-as-president-of-peru-be-kalshi-kxfujimoriout-26jul-27jan01 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Before Jan 1, 2028 | Before Jul 1, 2027 | Before Jan 1, 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 11 | 8 | 5 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market reflects a 17% probability that Keiko Fujimori will no longer be serving as President of Peru by January 1, 2028. The low probability suggests traders assess her position as relatively stable over the next six months. The main factors shaping this view are Peru's political volatility—including ongoing institutional tensions, regional protests, and criminal investigations affecting multiple political figures—weighed against the difficulty of removing a sitting president through standard mechanisms within this timeframe. Peru's presidential succession rules, congressional composition, and whether new scandals or street pressure destabilize her administration will be critical. The lack of recent trading volume in the mid-2027 contract suggests limited near-term market concern about an exit before July 2027, with more uncertainty priced in for the full year through early 2028.

### Key factors

- Peru's current institutional mechanisms for presidential removal (impeachment, resignation, or court action) and their historical frequency
- Status and velocity of ongoing criminal investigations or scandals involving Fujimori or her administration
- Congressional opposition strength and whether coalitions exist to pursue formal removal procedures
- Degree and sustainability of street-level unrest or protests targeting the government
- Changes in regional political events or international pressure that could accelerate domestic instability

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fujimoriout-26jul
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fujimoriout-26jul

## License

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