# Will DNC Services Corp / Democratic National Committee report more than $17M in cash on hand at the end of Q3

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 43% across 20 contracts — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fundraising
Updated: 2026-07-23T23:20:50.467Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-10-21

## Headline

- Probability: 43% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $23K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $20M | 79¢ | — | $4K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a20000000 |
| Above $45M | 26¢ | — | $3K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a45000000 |
| Above $30M | 65¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a30000000 |
| Above $50M | 16¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-talarico-for-texas-report-more-than-50m-in-to-kalshi-kxfundraising-jtalq326-a50000000 |
| Above $15M | 90¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a15000000 |
| Above $145M | 44¢ | — | $2K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-congressional-leadership-fund-report-more-kalshi-kxfundraising-clfq326-a145000000 |
| Above $25M | 75¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a25000000 |
| Above $35M | 48¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a35000000 |
| Above $40M | 33¢ | — | $1K | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-senatorial-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrscq326-a40000000 |
| Above $155M | 37¢ | — | $858 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-congressional-leadership-fund-report-more-kalshi-kxfundraising-clfq326-a155000000 |
| Above $105M | 47¢ | — | $633 | kalshi | /markets/will-republican-national-committee-report-more-tha-kalshi-kxfundraising-rncq326-a105000000 |
| Above $165M | 32¢ | — | $606 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-congressional-leadership-fund-report-more-kalshi-kxfundraising-clfq326-a165000000 |
| Above $115M | 25¢ | — | $516 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-senate-majority-pac-report-more-than-115m-kalshi-kxfundraising-smpq326-a115000000 |
| Above $155M | 18¢ | — | $394 | kalshi | /markets/will-house-majority-pac-report-more-than-155m-in-c-kalshi-kxfundraising-hmpq326-a155000000 |
| Above $60M | 12¢ | — | $393 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-congressional-campaign-committ-kalshi-kxfundraising-dcccq326-a60000000 |
| Above $325M | 84¢ | — | $390 | kalshi | /markets/will-maga-inc-report-more-than-325m-in-cash-on-han-kalshi-kxfundraising-magaq326-a325000000 |
| Above $90M | 11¢ | — | $388 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-national-republican-congressional-committ-kalshi-kxfundraising-nrccq326-a90000000 |
| Above $55M | 24¢ | — | $379 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-congressional-campaign-committ-kalshi-kxfundraising-dcccq326-a55000000 |
| Above $140M | 27¢ | — | $378 | kalshi | /markets/will-house-majority-pac-report-more-than-140m-in-c-kalshi-kxfundraising-hmpq326-a140000000 |
| Above $25M | 69¢ | — | $373 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-democratic-senatorial-campaign-committee-kalshi-kxfundraising-dsccq326-a25000000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | 39 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contract asks whether the Democratic National Committee will report more than $17 million in cash on hand at the end of Q3 2026. The 53% probability reflects near-equal odds either way. The outcome depends primarily on fundraising performance during the summer months and spending on campaign operations, advertising, and administrative costs. Committee cash positions fluctuate significantly based on election-cycle timing and donor activity. The key catalyst will be the official Q3 financial disclosure filing, typically due in mid-October, which will provide definitive cash-on-hand figures. Interpreting the probability requires understanding that the DNC's cash position serves as an indicator of organizational financial health and campaign readiness heading into the final stretch before November elections.

### Key factors

- The DNC reported specific cash-on-hand figures in prior quarters that establish a baseline for assessing whether $17M represents a realistic or stretched threshold
- Summer 2026 fundraising performance relative to typical cycle patterns will directly affect available cash by end of Q3
- Campaign spending commitments already announced or expected during Q3 will reduce cash reserves
- The spread of related contracts (93¢ at $8M, 76¢ at $14M, 54¢ at $17M, 51¢ at $20M) suggests market uncertainty concentrated around the $14-20M range
- October mid-month financial disclosure filing will provide the definitive resolution with no room for interpretation

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fundraising
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fundraising
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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