# How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost

> At least $100 leads at 84%, runner-up 75% across 10 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fyrefestprice
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:42.460Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2030-01-01

## Headline

- Leader: At least $100 at 84%
- Runner-up: At least $500 at 75%
- Outcomes: 10 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (10 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (10)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| At least $100 | 84¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-100 |
| At least $500 | 75¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-500 |
| At least $750 | 73¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-750 |
| At least $1000 | 69¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-1000 |
| At least $1250 | 66¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-1250 |
| At least $1400 | 63¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-1400 |
| At least $1750 | 48¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-1750 |
| At least $2000 | 29¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-2000 |
| At least $3000 | 22¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-3000 |
| At least $5000 | 15¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/how-much-will-a-fyre-festival-2-general-admission-kalshi-kxfyrefestprice-30-5000 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | At least $100 | At least $500 | At least $750 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 75 | — |
| 2026-04-12 | — | — | 74 |
| 2026-04-18 | — | 78 | 76 |
| 2026-04-22 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-04-23 | 84 | — | — |
| 2026-04-28 | 88 | — | — |
| 2026-04-29 | 86 | — | — |
| 2026-05-06 | — | 76 | — |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This contracts asks whether a Fyre Festival revival will charge at least a certain price for general admission tickets. The current 47% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether organizers will attempt a second iteration of the infamous 2017 event, and if so, what pricing strategy they'd adopt. The main drivers of this probability are the event's notoriously failed first attempt and associated legal/reputation challenges, balanced against potential investor appetite for a "redemption" narrative and evolving festival economics. Resolution depends on whether a Fyre Festival 2 actually occurs and publicly announces ticket pricing. The cross-venue disagreement (Kalshi at 49% vs Polymarket at 41%) suggests traders weight the brand revival and pricing assumptions differently, though trading volumes are modest across both venues, indicating limited consensus.

### Key factors

- Whether a Fyre Festival 2 is formally announced by organizers or promoters, as tickets may not be priced if the event never materializes
- Historical pricing patterns for celebrity-backed music festivals post-2017, which have ranged from $500-$2,000 for general admission depending on lineup and location
- Legal and liability status of Frank Marshall and associated entities, which would directly affect investment and insurance costs embedded in ticket pricing
- Market appetite for high-end festival experiences in the post-pandemic economy and whether a rebrand can overcome the 2017 brand damage
- Current low trading volumes on both venues, suggesting market participants remain uncertain about both event probability and pricing threshold details

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/fyrefestprice
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=fyrefestprice

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.