# GA-05 Democratic Primary Winner

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 6% across 1 contract — refreshed 2 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga05-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-03T09:05:27.015Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Probability: 6% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Polymarket (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arnetress Beatty | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ga-05-democratic-primary-winner-arnetress-beatty-polymarket-0x4b0c6fd5aaf8d49a921d08083000b06c7118636d8f351999357e35655e23fcdc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | 1 |
| 2026-04-26 | 1 |
| 2026-05-03 | 7 |

_14 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-04-28 · Arnetress Beatty +11pp 1→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-29 · Arnetress Beatty −4pp 12→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-04-30 · Arnetress Beatty −3pp 8→5¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-01 · Arnetress Beatty +3pp 5→8¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a Democratic candidate will win Georgia's 5th Congressional District primary election. The 37% level suggests meaningful uncertainty about the race outcome, influenced by candidate name recognition, campaign fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns among the Democratic field. The primary election date will be the decisive catalyst that resolves this market, as it will determine which candidate advances to the general election. Until then, factors like candidate debate performance, polling data releases, and donor activity will likely shift probabilities as new information emerges about voter preferences in this district.

### Key factors

- Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Democratic primary candidates in GA-05
- Public polling data showing relative support levels among registered Democrats in the district
- Endorsement patterns from established Democratic figures and organizations in Georgia
- Voter turnout rates in previous Democratic primaries within GA-05 compared to current cycle trends
- Candidate debate performances and media coverage volume in the weeks leading up to the primary election date

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga05-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ga05-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.