# GA-13 Democratic Primary Winner

> Jasmine Clark leads at 84%, runner-up 11% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga13-democratic-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:50:39.362Z
Category: general · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Jasmine Clark at 84%
- Runner-up: Everton Blair Jr. at 11%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $95

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Clark | 84¢ | −1pp | $75 | polymarket | /markets/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner-jasmine-clark-polymarket-0x7d735538097156afa2b5539f33e9f8ea73dfdfdc6de504032958ee23f2351bbb |
| Everton Blair Jr. | 11¢ | −2pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner-everton-blair-jr-polymarket-0x2b832bc48b71867767749e37145269e42098d32ebf930a29e6eac57338a2672b |
| Joe Lester | 3¢ | +7pp | $10 | polymarket | /markets/ga-13-democratic-primary-winner-joe-lester-polymarket-0x807d59a81015c92b5a45cc820f925372d7977eaa90b7878071d474940bf4df62 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Jasmine Clark | Everton Blair Jr. | Joe Lester |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | 35 | 22 | 4 |
| 2026-04-24 | 75 | 16 | — |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 16 | 1 |
| 2026-05-02 | 82 | 15 | 1 |
| 2026-05-08 | 83 | 13 | 10 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 11 | — |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-08 · Joe Lester +7pp 3→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Jasmine Clark +3pp 81→84¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Everton Blair Jr. −3pp 16→13¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 43% probability reflects market expectations that a particular candidate will win Georgia's 13th congressional district Democratic primary. This reflects uncertainty about candidate strength, voter preferences, and turnout patterns in the district. The probability would move higher if early polling shows a frontrunner consolidating support, or lower if multiple competitive candidates dilute the vote or if endorsements shift the race dynamics. The primary election date and any scheduled debates or candidate forums will be key moments that could shift market sentiment as voters gain more information about the candidates' positions and viability.

### Key factors

- Primary election date and voter registration data for GA-13 showing whether turnout expectations have changed
- Recent polling or internal survey results from the district indicating whether the leading candidate maintains or loses support relative to competitors
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures or organizations that could signal candidate viability and fundraising capacity
- Campaign finance reports showing which candidates have raised funds and whether any have dropped out or suspended operations
- Demographic and historical primary turnout patterns in GA-13 compared to recent special election or general election participation rates

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga13-democratic-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ga13-democratic-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.