# Who will win the 2026 GA-13 special election

> Closed. Last odds frozen 3 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga13s
Updated: 2026-07-28T01:20:51.674Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2027-07-28

## Headline

- Leader: Marcye Scott at 80%
- Runner-up: Everton Blair Jr. at 14%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcye Scott | 80¢ | +8pp | $2K | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ga-13-special-election-marcy-kalshi-kxga13s-26-msco |
| Everton Blair Jr. | 14¢ | −11pp | $90 | kalshi | /markets/who-will-win-the-2026-ga-13-special-election-evert-kalshi-kxga13s-26-ebla |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Marcye Scott | Everton Blair Jr. |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | 12 | 66 |
| 2026-07-16 | 42 | 51 |
| 2026-07-17 | — | 45 |
| 2026-07-24 | 47 | 48 |
| 2026-07-27 | 75 | 17 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-07-25 · Everton Blair Jr. −15pp 48→33¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-26 · Marcye Scott +13pp 54→67¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Everton Blair Jr. −11pp 28→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-27 · Marcye Scott +8pp 67→75¢ · kalshi
- 2026-07-25 · Marcye Scott +7pp 47→54¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

The 2026 Georgia 13th congressional district special election shows Everton Blair Jr. with a 71% estimated probability of winning, based on aggregated market contracts. This reflects trader expectations about which candidate will secure the seat in this special election. The current probability differential suggests Blair Jr. holds a significant structural or polling advantage over the field, with nearest competitor Marcye Scott at 15%. Movement in this probability would likely stem from new polling data, candidate endorsements, fundraising disclosures, or campaign developments that alter perceptions of electability. The special election date itself represents the critical uncertainty-resolving event—once voting concludes, the outcome becomes known. Until then, market prices reflect incomplete information about voter preferences, turnout patterns, and campaign momentum heading into election day.

### Key factors

- Blair Jr. commands 71% implied probability versus 15% for Scott and 14% combined for four other candidates, indicating substantial perceived structural advantage
- Kalshi contract volume is concentrated in Scott's contract ($383 24h), suggesting active disagreement about the second-place finisher despite Blair's frontrunner status
- No polling data, campaign finance reports, or endorsement details provided in market snapshot—probability is based on trader aggregation of available information
- The special election date and voting rules (runoff requirements if applicable) will determine if single-ballot plurality or threshold mechanisms apply
- Market prices reflect a 29% collective probability assigned to all non-Blair candidates combined, capturing uncertainty about potential consolidation or surprise candidacy shifts

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga13s
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ga13s
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.