# Will anyone win the 2026 Georgia Commissioner of Insurance general election election in the first round

> Commissioner of Labor leads at 86%, runner-up 86% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 19 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga1round
Updated: 2026-06-17T13:20:18.086Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: active
Closes: 2027-11-03

## Headline

- Leader: Commissioner of Labor at 86%
- Runner-up: Commissioner of Agriculture at 86%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commissioner of Labor | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-commissioner-of-l-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-col |
| Commissioner of Agriculture | 86¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-commissioner-of-a-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-com |
| Lieutenant Governor | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-lieutenant-govern-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-ltgov |
| State Superintendent of Schools | 84¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-state-school-supe-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-sup |
| Attorney General | 83¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-attorney-general-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-ag |
| Secretary of State | 83¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-secretary-of-stat-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-sos |
| Governor | 73¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-gubernatorial-gen-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-gov |
| Commissioner of Insurance | 70¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-commissioner-of-i-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-coi |
| Senate | 60¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-anyone-win-the-2026-georgia-united-states-sen-kalshi-kxga1round-26nov03-sen |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Commissioner of Labor | Commissioner of Agriculture | Lieutenant Governor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | 86 | 86 | 84 |

_1 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-10 · Governor +5pp 69→74¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-16 · Senate −3pp 63→60¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Georgia's 2026 Commissioner of Insurance election will produce a clear winner on the first ballot, rather than requiring a runoff. The current 52% reading suggests near-parity between scenarios, with the outcome hinging primarily on whether the leading candidate achieves a majority threshold. In Georgia's general elections, candidates avoid runoffs by winning over 50% of votes cast. The probability would rise if early polling or candidate positioning indicates a frontrunner significantly ahead of competitors, and would fall if the field fragments among multiple viable candidates or if voter preferences remain highly dispersed. The decisive moment arrives when primary winners emerge and general election dynamics solidify, typically through summer polling and candidate announcements that clarify the field's structure and competitiveness.

### Key factors

- Number of viable candidates entering the general election and their relative fundraising/polling positions
- Voter turnout level and demographic composition, which affects whether a 50%+ threshold is achievable for any single candidate
- Whether any candidate can consolidate support across traditional party coalitions or attracts crossover voters at scale
- Historical precedent for first-round outcomes in Georgia statewide races and patterns in insurance commissioner contests specifically
- Timing and results of any formal primary elections that determine which candidates advance to the general ballot

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ga1round
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ga1round
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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