# Gainare Tottori vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gainare-tottori-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:08.809Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori (-2.5) | 35¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0x00cdc863684fd3e4ee696cbf0834c6bcc97af7e2a4500b2e97b8d1709d5a8c9f |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x303510bcb696aba478484a929f96eb9bf76361a3140c8c6f2032dfad8c073c8a |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5) | 34¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xaaeaf2cfb3eb39e114b42dd4dc45970dcd84501e1848e33fcde5cf933f6f2a40 |
| O/U 2.5 | 53¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x03536323a1a8f83abdf45667871bd0f123440908e6f273e298292df61148ec63 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0x719429327bee4b18742338d491206abbbe3d1dcdbd56879a4a0af5baee1f7984 |
| Both Teams to Score | 50¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-b-polymarket-0x32de6b71e8be134fa22c6cd98215d5a6aea943283af791854d029622c915ada9 |
| O/U 3.5 | 34¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0xae5a2b87d29499e06bc927e017f1f5c9df30ba4b3799e5ceb7b69126c1ff2d40 |
| Gainare Tottori (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0xe81828ca36aab01b297bf67fd646d0c2907d7df576ef42e4f8fbba3e8d2da3a4 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x57869b63e71fd2eaa7d4772e0867a99e3109e15620fde4daf168820a4f8a5019 |
| Sagan Tosu (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0xde051c4f9072d30ef1a54c22875e34aee124590306fc49e7b41e01fc297ef56b |
| Reilac Shiga (-1.5) | 33¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0x0f5665c225149dbe84afa4e40a1bd581aee9d37ee89f4e53a31e4ebf9371f01a |
| O/U 1.5 | 68¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xb085f45a735169eb9ef7d0bd0108825a4816d73a567acf02e04169d03530d24e |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2d68ef538060e39f821c7b567407e6bd8d67066d9685038cc748cb2c8fd45be9 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-o-polymarket-0x9129c6d9f9cbd07b3b06194bcc629b0b120ddf7c729b3d48340cb9adb17bdb55 |
| Reilac Shiga (-2.5) | 32¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xdd3092e342d7ec1e30755e4b3aef3551cbc790635a037482ad92955c4e8c9e74 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-both-te-polymarket-0xc62c8052b88eabaf7fbba8ed2266f84cd1e1cffbed7ad97d4003e6dc8d513ca6 |
| Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-1.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets-r-polymarket-0xd7af9502399881d796357dd1c2f135082cb1f7e26bdbcfc217a11880009bfee6 |
| Sagan Tosu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0x5900f7e742db7839d3896d8c530bc6a6c5022b3f22a6119cb5ca7546291bc899 |
| Reilac Shiga | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-reilac-shiga-polymarket-0x6e16efb90d61db052428897a4bb259a4e7cdeafb3f78c51e9aa942bbac811cf2 |
| Draw (Reilac Shiga vs. Renofa Yamaguchi FC) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/reilac-shiga-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-draw-reilac-sh-polymarket-0x164ec0b51bc7d1d5f554122da787da06e8ed8f2b787968b7a8b536dd45e64d6f |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 |
| 2026-05-03 | 43 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Reilac Shiga (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sagan Tosu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Renofa Yamaguchi FC (-2.5) +3pp 35→38¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 40% probability reflects market expectations that Gainare Tottori will generate additional betting markets beyond standard outcomes in an upcoming J-League match context. The current price suggests moderate uncertainty, likely driven by limited recent trading activity (zero 24-hour volume across top contracts) and sparse historical data on how frequently supplementary markets open for these teams' matchups. The primary factor affecting this probability would be the actual scheduling and market-creation decisions by oddsmakers in the days immediately preceding the fixture, as well as historical patterns showing whether Gainare Tottori matches typically spawn expanded betting options. Market resolution will occur once the fixture date arrives and oddsmakers either do or do not launch additional wagering opportunities beyond the standard moneyline, draws, and over-under bets.

### Key factors

- Zero trading volume across all related contracts in the past 24 hours indicates minimal market conviction and possible pricing based on defaults rather than active assessment
- Historical frequency of supplementary markets for Gainare Tottori versus Renofa Yamaguchi FC specifically—if these teams rarely face each other or rarely attract expanded markets, the 40% may reflect base rates rather than match-specific factors
- The timing and scheduling of the actual match date will determine when oddsmakers typically decide whether to expand available markets, as this decision often depends on anticipated betting interest and bookmaker resources
- Gainare Tottori's competitive standing and recent form may influence oddsmaker decisions about market expansion, since higher-profile or more volatile matchups tend to attract additional wagering options
- Exchange liquidity for Japanese football markets generally remains lower than major leagues, potentially suppressing the probability if supplementary markets are simply less common across all J-League fixtures

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gainare-tottori-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gainare-tottori-vs-renofa-yamaguchi-fc-more-markets

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