# Gainare Tottori vs. Roasso Kumamoto

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 14 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gainare-tottori-vs-roasso-kumamoto
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:50:59.673Z
Category: general
Status: active

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto) | 35¢ | +2pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-draw-giravanz-polymarket-0xeb0a6cc422ff6d58db99321e3c9d089d05c2465f8d1fc25934db7618e43fe3e4 |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 37¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-roasso-kumamo-polymarket-0xb333ae12051b405aedb9d3046a9e6a8a343105ee0226d38a42f872d8ac0e847a |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x59b299fc4021607125c252f41a631c6fe859873f9a60438610be69cc56a22b8a |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-both-te-polymarket-0xc62c8052b88eabaf7fbba8ed2266f84cd1e1cffbed7ad97d4003e6dc8d513ca6 |
| Sagan Tosu (-2.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0x5900f7e742db7839d3896d8c530bc6a6c5022b3f22a6119cb5ca7546291bc899 |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0xb972b717ce93cb571f24032c012df313ea81fdfbbcd9f811f1391b9aae43e015 |
| Sagan Tosu (-1.5) | 33¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-sagan-t-polymarket-0xde051c4f9072d30ef1a54c22875e34aee124590306fc49e7b41e01fc297ef56b |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x226e5a60c6827a47ba6097d73d8b6ed1c59114d76f6949972060d9216d2144b2 |
| Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x13917b41d289056020830b44b9e5adfa7a55621c5544f6801a5b4beb03442bc5 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x1b2ae8f24c71c828c0cf1ecff8f67b600d8512567e2033b98389a3982bf6f42c |
| O/U 2.5 | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x2d68ef538060e39f821c7b567407e6bd8d67066d9685038cc748cb2c8fd45be9 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x9e0a7987caa0a0cba2c2609f78114e6e7c049596c5a987210b8c46b666dd5073 |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5) | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x2185500c2904f81e9b563d66af1ed9780c27224d2de0ed45aaba8269dc2c9d13 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0x57869b63e71fd2eaa7d4772e0867a99e3109e15620fde4daf168820a4f8a5019 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xb085f45a735169eb9ef7d0bd0108825a4816d73a567acf02e04169d03530d24e |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū | 47¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-giravanz-kita-polymarket-0x293b9d327a24d724186373053ec50f6e9bf4e2a4153360eb8d088aa5778b3984 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x0a8c9d49db24553dbeccb4e8f5626d854f310d5d91eaf433d38804449c1d15b7 |
| Gainare Tottori (-1.5) | 33¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-more-markets-gainare-polymarket-0xe81828ca36aab01b297bf67fd646d0c2907d7df576ef42e4f8fbba3e8d2da3a4 |
| Gainare Tottori | 36¢ | −8pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-gainare-tottori-polymarket-0x2e8cb983805f1ebb56d435554c8a2d299d1afcbcabdfcb96fd445e1de2f9fdb0 |
| Draw (Sagan Tosu vs. Gainare Tottori) | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sagan-tosu-vs-gainare-tottori-draw-sagan-tosu-vs-g-polymarket-0x8bfb29652d58dcbbe33735f50ac6022d2825b58b3208952d56868a2a59de1d08 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 41 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 42 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori −8pp 40→32¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sagan Tosu (-2.5) +4pp 32→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gainare Tottori (-1.5) +4pp 33→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gainare-tottori-vs-roasso-kumamoto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gainare-tottori-vs-roasso-kumamoto

## License

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