# Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe - More Markets

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 30% across 20 contracts — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gamba-saka-vs-vissel-k-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:36:01.059Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 30% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 38¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0x25132a85784c8a4d7e9033d1b409b60703b4985d5404a86669c3e9b22c0dc79e |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) | 8¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-san-polymarket-0x838893bd820ebabcc88ae0a15a2a0d3016c9fde3a49a4c2f41b6c6d2637af108 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xe57d5ef3322ea2c9e06b55f96c797d127a6f99dff16c551f4067262033acf288 |
| Both Teams to Score | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x6cfc8d4ea986763ba0a10eacb817822ac38af23c8d9d5c31d3a98358ab1f7b8f |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0xa4181124cdfbaaec195dd2665c734963f1e390267c4c321eb161640f93743aa9 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-1.5) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0524ea5d7f1c73584bdce3de66b22fb30eacd6a1ef0bc3b034e5e9e3d3be9f8d |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xdfd081d9c02c28ff4161a98dc03be658f2c0bf40e507f8417a405fcd4a90ff31 |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc12420d54a5f52a0e3e6b567c04c4a504cb40f1dfc473234c15c5c8db9fda052 |
| Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) | 11¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0xc674e6a36965fa0e611b5bc6212d2a7beaadfbc9fcd81a46a8bf0be9712bb72c |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0x46afc095649ba6fa057372d661624c801f0bce711d6c745012488addeec17592 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-1.5) | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-san-polymarket-0x5cd99b90108f0ff51cfc1b28106407e34736bce3166d090d5905499a2196877d |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xa5be96c0387119ddfc9de4d4b7a72ec69206d5fa61b3ce809e7cee8ae97f39c2 |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x840caa5bd31d364838b0acbdbfded39a1aa1e0860ceb849b3b03cfcc4c856f30 |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xec59e7436c79b9327cf1b9416da41ee55e799520f89361d59944360a652c8852 |
| Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) | 11¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0x0dd98db188e5654f0d81714fb96f292841ddf74c965b60074c689f3ffaceb64e |
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xced5703e0a85d8a914960fee6f941ca5f6ad458021b46f79003d9132621e3f21 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) | 13¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0a811879a31f5a3a43f79b658cfc5b4c22d780bef0efae98d73e39c0f4b1d88b |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0x97c68a154393c087eef54aa2afd6a2705e4ec25a08f8c01ad141b53ca8510456 |
| Draw (Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka) | 28¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-draw-nagoya-grampus-v-polymarket-0xde13b831cf6d625d075855437b09acca2677cae557c1f8118fdef77786dab1c5 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) +15pp 11→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) +14pp 12→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) +9pp 9→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Nagoya Grampus (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This contract estimates a 35% probability that Gamba Ōsaka will score more goals than Vissel Kōbe in an upcoming J-League match. The probability reflects relative team form, home-field advantage if applicable, and recent scoring patterns. Movement in this market would depend on team selection announcements, injury updates to key players, or recent performance trends in the days before the match. The primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty is the match itself, which determines actual goals scored. Related Nagoya Grampus contracts show market participants also weighting defensive strength; the relatively low 10-cent price on Vissel conceding 2.5+ goals suggests defensively solid opponents are expected.

### Key factors

- Gamba Ōsaka's recent goal-scoring rate and conversion efficiency in J-League play
- Vissel Kōbe's defensive record and goals-against average over recent matches
- Team lineup confirmation and availability of key attacking or defensive players before match day
- Historical head-to-head scoring patterns between these two clubs
- Match venue and typical home-field scoring advantage, if applicable

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gamba-saka-vs-vissel-k-more-markets

## License

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