# Gamba Ōsaka vs. Vissel Kōbe

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 31% across 20 contracts — refreshed 13 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gamba-saka-vs-vissel-k
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:35:50.233Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 31% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $5

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagoya Grampus | 38¢ | +1pp | $5 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-nagoya-grampus-polymarket-0x25132a85784c8a4d7e9033d1b409b60703b4985d5404a86669c3e9b22c0dc79e |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) | 8¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-san-polymarket-0x838893bd820ebabcc88ae0a15a2a0d3016c9fde3a49a4c2f41b6c6d2637af108 |
| Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) | 11¢ | +15pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0x0dd98db188e5654f0d81714fb96f292841ddf74c965b60074c689f3ffaceb64e |
| O/U 2.5 | 45¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x840caa5bd31d364838b0acbdbfded39a1aa1e0860ceb849b3b03cfcc4c856f30 |
| O/U 3.5 | 22¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xa5be96c0387119ddfc9de4d4b7a72ec69206d5fa61b3ce809e7cee8ae97f39c2 |
| O/U 4.5 | 12¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xdfd081d9c02c28ff4161a98dc03be658f2c0bf40e507f8417a405fcd4a90ff31 |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) | 14¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0x97c68a154393c087eef54aa2afd6a2705e4ec25a08f8c01ad141b53ca8510456 |
| O/U 1.5 | 76¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-15-polymarket-0xc12420d54a5f52a0e3e6b567c04c4a504cb40f1dfc473234c15c5c8db9fda052 |
| O/U 4.5 | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-45-polymarket-0xe57d5ef3322ea2c9e06b55f96c797d127a6f99dff16c551f4067262033acf288 |
| Both Teams to Score | 57¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-both-tea-polymarket-0x6cfc8d4ea986763ba0a10eacb817822ac38af23c8d9d5c31d3a98358ab1f7b8f |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-25-polymarket-0x164f65bdba63b31b0fe7b75fed96ea69c9a6aba1d5daf015c3c6e417b85e9ef8 |
| O/U 3.5 | 29¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-ou-35-polymarket-0xec59e7436c79b9327cf1b9416da41ee55e799520f89361d59944360a652c8852 |
| Nagoya Grampus (-1.5) | 16¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-nagoya-g-polymarket-0x0524ea5d7f1c73584bdce3de66b22fb30eacd6a1ef0bc3b034e5e9e3d3be9f8d |
| Vissel Kōbe | 25¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-vissel-kbe-polymarket-0xdb1e98067fdfaf0fec85bc35a160fe2b145b404623edab084c40ec3cd9029016 |
| Gamba Ōsaka (-2.5) | 12¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-more-markets-gamba-sa-polymarket-0xa4181124cdfbaaec195dd2665c734963f1e390267c4c321eb161640f93743aa9 |
| Both Teams to Score | 56¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-bot-polymarket-0x46afc095649ba6fa057372d661624c801f0bce711d6c745012488addeec17592 |
| Gamba Ōsaka | 35¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/nagoya-grampus-vs-gamba-saka-gamba-saka-polymarket-0xec591d9284ef5e118e9c4634b6e9cd620d6cfec91d15338300ca924b6f110446 |
| Draw (Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs. Vissel Kōbe) | 28¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-draw-sanfrecce-h-polymarket-0x0324afcc79628d5cb7db530670ac87279e66e76dd8d559539e2054bcd63f007a |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 49¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-sanfrecce-hirosh-polymarket-0x1c22d58fe1f4283b3f743213ca02560d27ef0bc4caa1c2c59ac63270dce37c68 |
| Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) | 11¢ | +14pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/sanfrecce-hiroshima-vs-vissel-kbe-more-markets-vis-polymarket-0xc674e6a36965fa0e611b5bc6212d2a7beaadfbc9fcd81a46a8bf0be9712bb72c |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 36 |
| 2026-05-03 | 38 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Vissel Kōbe (-2.5) +15pp 11→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Vissel Kōbe (-1.5) +14pp 12→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima (-2.5) +9pp 9→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-02 · Sanfrecce Hiroshima +6pp 43→49¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gamba Ōsaka (-1.5) +3pp 30→33¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 35% probability reflects market expectations that Gamba Ōsaka will achieve a positive result (win or draw) in an upcoming match against Vissel Kōbe. The current level suggests traders view Vissel Kōbe as slight favorites, likely based on recent form, head-to-head records, or home-field advantage. Key factors influencing this probability include each team's current league position and recent performance streak, injury status of key players, and whether the match is played at a neutral venue or one team's home ground. The probability will shift materially once the match is played, with outcome data immediately resolving the uncertainty. Until then, any significant roster changes, coaching announcements, or official confirmation of venue could move the market. Low trading volume on related contracts suggests limited liquidity, which may cause wider bid-ask spreads and larger price swings from individual trades.

### Key factors

- Current league standings and recent match results for both Gamba Ōsaka and Vissel Kōbe in the 2026 season
- Confirmed starting lineups and availability of key players, particularly any injuries or suspensions announced before match day
- Whether the match is played at Gamba's home venue, Vissel's home venue, or a neutral location
- Head-to-head historical performance between these teams over the past 2-3 seasons
- Match date and time confirmation, as any postponement or schedule change could affect team preparation and odds adjustment

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gamba-saka-vs-vissel-k
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gamba-saka-vs-vissel-k

## License

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