# 2026 Game of the Year

> Grand Theft Auto VI leads at 71%, runner-up 13% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 26 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gameawards
Updated: 2026-06-26T07:20:49.103Z
Category: sports
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-31

## Headline

- Leader: Grand Theft Auto VI at 71%
- Runner-up: Resident Evil Requiem at 13%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $7K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grand Theft Auto VI | 71¢ | +1pp | $5K | kalshi | /markets/2026-game-of-the-year-grand-theft-auto-vi-kalshi-kxgameawards-2026-gta |
| Resident Evil Requiem | 13¢ | ±0 | $2K | kalshi | /markets/2026-game-of-the-year-resident-evil-requiem-kalshi-kxgameawards-2026-res |
| Half-Life 3 | 6¢ | −3pp | $123 | kalshi | /markets/2026-game-of-the-year-half-life-3-kalshi-kxgameawards-2026-hal |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Grand Theft Auto VI | Resident Evil Requiem | Half-Life 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 59 | 8 | — |
| 2026-05-28 | 59 | — | 4 |
| 2026-06-12 | 61 | 15 | 5 |
| 2026-06-16 | 60 | 18 | 6 |
| 2026-06-19 | 61 | 13 | — |
| 2026-06-25 | 70 | 13 | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 71 | — | — |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · Grand Theft Auto VI +5pp 65→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 31% probability represents the likelihood that a video game will be named Game of the Year in 2026 by a major awarding body. The aggregate figure is pulled from two venues showing notable disagreement: Kalshi's contracts average 34% while Polymarket's average 5%, suggesting different trader bases may be pricing similar outcomes differently. Key drivers of this probability include the quality and commercial success of major title releases scheduled for 2026, the voting composition and criteria of major award organizations like The Game Awards and BAFTA, and uncertainty around which games will generate sufficient critical and player consensus. The resolution date depends on award announcement timing, typically occurring in November and December 2026. Traders are effectively betting on whether the industry will reach broad agreement on an exceptional game worthy of the year's highest honor.

### Key factors

- Major AAA game releases in 2026 and their critical reception scores (Metacritic 90+) versus prior years
- Voting eligibility rules and participating studios/publishers in major award ceremonies scheduled for Q4 2026
- Historical Game of the Year voting margins and whether any single title has emerged with consensus support by October 2026
- Release date clustering and whether meaningful competition exists or one title dominates market share and reviews
- The composition of voting bodies (critics, players, industry voters) and their historical preference patterns for specific genres or studios

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gameawards
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gameawards

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.