# Will Kingdom Hearts 4 release this year

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 38% across 6 contracts — refreshed 49 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gamerelease
Updated: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.182Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-02

## Headline

- Probability: 38% (liquidity-weighted across 6 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $865

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squadron 42 | 13¢ | +3pp | $513 | kalshi | /markets/will-squadron-42-release-this-year-squadron-42-kalshi-kxgamerelease-26-squ |
| Half-Life 3 | 11¢ | ±0 | $324 | kalshi | /markets/will-half-life-3-release-this-year-half-life-3-kalshi-kxgamerelease-26-half |
| Campaign Evolved release this year?: Halo: Campaign Evolved | 97¢ | −1pp | $23 | kalshi | /markets/will-halo-campaign-evolved-release-this-year-halo-kalshi-kxgamerelease-26-hal |
| Wolverine | 92¢ | −1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-marvels-wolverine-release-this-year-wolverine-kalshi-kxgamerelease-26-wol |
| Kingdom Hearts 4 | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-kingdom-hearts-4-release-this-year-kingdom-he-kalshi-kxgamerelease-26-kin |
| Light No Fire | 6¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-light-no-fire-release-this-year-light-no-fire-kalshi-kxgamerelease-26-lig |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 58 |
| 2026-06-12 | 20 |
| 2026-06-19 | 35 |
| 2026-06-25 | 55 |

_30 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-19 · Squadron 42 +5pp 13→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-19 · Half-Life 3 −5pp 22→17¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-23 · Half-Life 3 −5pp 17→12¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-20 · Squadron 42 +4pp 18→22¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-22 · Squadron 42 −3pp 20→17¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

A 32% probability means traders estimate roughly one-in-three odds that Kingdom Hearts 4 will launch before year-end 2026. The game was announced in 2022 but has had minimal public updates since then, which suppresses expectations compared to franchises with active development communication. The probability could shift significantly based on upcoming gaming industry announcements—particularly any reveals at major events like Summer Game Fest (typically June) or industry showcases where Square Enix might provide release timeline clarity. Historical Kingdom Hearts release patterns show multi-year development cycles, and the lack of a confirmed 2026 window in official communications keeps the market probability relatively cautious. A concrete release date announcement would be the primary uncertainty resolver, as would any official statement pushing the launch beyond 2026.

### Key factors

- No official 2026 release date has been announced by Square Enix as of May 2026
- The last significant Kingdom Hearts 4 update occurred in 2022; minimal public communication about development progress or timeline in recent years
- Kingdom Hearts games historically require 3-5 year development cycles; typical pre-release marketing campaigns begin 6-12 months before launch
- Major gaming industry events (Summer Game Fest, Tokyo Game Show, PlayStation/Xbox showcases) are scheduled through fall 2026 and would be natural venues for release date announcements
- Previous Kingdom Hearts mainline releases (KH3 in 2019, KH Re:Chain of Memories in 2004) all had substantial marketing visibility within 12 months of launch

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gamerelease
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gamerelease

## License

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