# Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC

> Gangwon FC leads at 46%, runner-up 30% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:56.880Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Gangwon FC at 46%
- Runner-up: Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC) at 30%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $39

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 46¢ | +4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-gangwon-fc-polymarket-0x09ab68384d4d225b73ee81dc3d999bed2d77b5f4c330ca15faf3d522e1e20c78 |
| Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC) | 30¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-draw-gangwon-fc-v-polymarket-0x723f6513bff795c8e26c77d1a02dc05383b9ee65b6468ab1692b1fe11dc56749 |
| Pohang Steelers FC | 24¢ | −6pp | $39 | polymarket | /markets/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc-pohang-steelers-f-polymarket-0xa80cd7cea8e72ee13a95418eabf7e7dc15764334801b08c5f1503d988061c5ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Gangwon FC | Draw (Gangwon FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC) | Pohang Steelers FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 39 | 32 | 37 |
| 2026-05-02 | 41 | 31 | 31 |
| 2026-05-03 | 45 | — | — |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Pohang Steelers FC −6pp 37→31¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Gangwon FC +4pp 41→45¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that Gangwon FC will win an upcoming match against Pohang Steelers FC. At 45%, Gangwon is favored but faces meaningful competition, with a runner-up outcome priced at 30%. The pricing reflects uncertainty typical of K League matchups where recent form, team strength, and home-field advantage interact unpredictably. Resolution depends on the match outcome on its scheduled date. Secondary markets suggest low expected goal totals, with under 1.5 goals trading highest at 66¢, indicating belief in a low-scoring contest. Current trading volume is minimal across all contracts, suggesting limited recent market activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Gangwon FC win probability of 45% implies roughly even odds against Pohang despite being the listed favorite, leaving significant probability mass for draws and Pohang victory
- Under 1.5 goals is priced highest at 66¢, contradicting typical K League scoring patterns and suggesting either defensive form or incomplete match information in the market
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all five contracts indicates thin liquidity and potentially stale pricing rather than active current market consensus
- Match outcome resolution is binary and verifiable, making this resolvable without subjective interpretation once the fixture concludes
- Spread market pricing (Gangwon -2.5 at 9¢) implies very low probability of dominant Gangwon victory, suggesting market expects either competitive balance or upset risk

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gangwon-fc-vs-pohang-steelers-fc

## License

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