# Will gas hit __ by end of May — ↓ $4.20

> ↑ $4.60 leads at 9%, runner-up 4% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 52 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gas-hit-may
Updated: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.298Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: ↑ $4.60 at 9%
- Runner-up: ↓ $4.25 at 4%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $373

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ↑ $4.60 | 9¢ | −5pp | $178 | polymarket | /markets/will-gas-hit-by-end-of-may-460-polymarket-0x228699193173c0ca040592790a8c3adf1106ed5ab542d3397afb119c0eb2d9c2 |
| ↓ $4.25 | 4¢ | −10pp | $122 | polymarket | /markets/will-gas-hit-by-end-of-may-425-polymarket-0x8a0d5d7cfe1751362abf07b0d4caa5dcf5b817fad7f7b9ff4de9f395cecdab7c |
| ↓ $4.20 | 4¢ | −1pp | $73 | polymarket | /markets/will-gas-hit-by-end-of-may-420-polymarket-0xd6c71d8228354234abc3d0ce74d5e6eca5a91d8432a76a9de156fc7e01c1feaa |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | ↑ $4.60 | ↓ $4.25 | ↓ $4.20 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 15 | 12 | 9 |
| 2026-05-27 | 12 | 19 | 12 |
| 2026-05-28 | 7 | 9 | 11 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-28 · ↓ $4.25 −10pp 19→9¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · ↓ $4.25 +7pp 12→19¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-28 · ↑ $4.60 −5pp 12→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · ↑ $4.60 −3pp 15→12¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-27 · ↓ $4.20 +3pp 9→12¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market measures whether the average U.S. gas price will fall below $4.20 per gallon by May 31, 2026. Currently priced at 27%, the outcome leans toward gas staying above that threshold, though traders see material probability of a dip below it. Movement in crude oil prices and seasonal demand patterns heading into summer typically drive these contracts. The contract expires May 31, giving markets approximately 4 days to resolve; final weekly EIA petroleum inventory data and any last-minute crude price shifts before month-end will be the primary drivers of late movement. Polymarket volume ($1.55k across top contracts) suggests moderate but real trader interest, with the $4.60 ceiling contract commanding the most conviction.

### Key factors

- Current WTI crude and refined product prices are the primary physical determinant; a drop of 3-5% in crude would meaningfully increase downside probability
- EIA weekly petroleum inventory reports through May 28 will provide fresh supply/demand signals; larger-than-expected inventory builds could weaken prices
- Expiration is May 31, 2026 with only 4 calendar days remaining; limited time for new catalysts means current price trends dominate settlement risk
- The $4.60 contract leading at 27% suggests traders expect prices to cluster in the $4.25–$4.60 range, making sub-$4.20 a minority outcome
- Seasonal demand acceleration into summer typically supports prices, providing structural headwind against a sharp month-end decline

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gas-hit-may
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gas-hit-may

## License

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