# Will Output Token Price of OpenAI GPT 5.5 be at or below $20/MTok in 2026

> $25/MTok or below leads at 43%, runner-up 32% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gbt55oy
Updated: 2026-06-27T12:20:49.053Z
Category: crypto · Topic: ai-tech
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: $25/MTok or below at 43%
- Runner-up: $20/MTok or below at 32%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $25/MTok or below | 43¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-of-openai-gpt-55-be-at-or-kalshi-kxgbt55oy-27-na-25 |
| $20/MTok or below | 32¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-of-openai-gpt-55-be-at-or-kalshi-kxgbt55oy-27-na-20 |
| $15/MTok or below | 19¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-of-openai-gpt-55-be-at-or-kalshi-kxgbt55oy-27-na-15 |
| $10/MTok or below | 12¢ | +1pp | $6 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-of-openai-gpt-55-be-at-or-kalshi-kxgbt55oy-27-na-10 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $25/MTok or below | $20/MTok or below | $15/MTok or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 38 | 18 | 13 |
| 2026-06-12 | 36 | 21 | 17 |
| 2026-06-13 | 40 | 34 | — |
| 2026-06-20 | 38 | 29 | 15 |
| 2026-06-25 | 39 | 32 | 18 |
| 2026-06-27 | 43 | — | 20 |

_19 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-25 · $10/MTok or below +4pp 7→11¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · $15/MTok or below +3pp 15→18¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-25 · $20/MTok or below +3pp 29→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-26 · $25/MTok or below +3pp 39→42¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that OpenAI's GPT 5.5 output tokens will cost $20 or less per million tokens by end-2026. The 19% price reflects skepticism that pricing will reach this threshold, with markets assigning higher probability (38%) to staying below $25/MTok. Pricing depends on model efficiency gains, competitive pressure, and OpenAI's pricing strategy post-release. The contract resolves upon GPT 5.5's official launch and published pricing; if the model releases before year-end 2026, actual pricing terms will determine the outcome. If launch delays beyond 2026, the contract expires unresolved. Near-term resolution depends on OpenAI's announcement timing and whether pricing undercuts current GPT-4 rates substantially enough to hit the $20 threshold.

### Key factors

- GPT 5.5 must launch before December 31, 2026 with publicly available output token pricing to enable contract resolution
- Current output token pricing for GPT-4 Turbo is approximately $0.03/1K tokens ($30/MTok), so $20/MTok requires a 33% price reduction or efficiency improvement
- Competitive pricing from Claude 3 and other models, along with volume-based discounting trends, influences whether OpenAI targets aggressive pricing at or below $20/MTok
- Model inference efficiency and computational cost improvements directly correlate to published output token pricing
- No official launch date or pricing announcement for GPT 5.5 has been confirmed as of June 2026, creating uncertainty about resolution timing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gbt55oy
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/ai-tech

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