# Will real GDP increase by more than 4.0% in Q1 2026

> Above 0.0% leads at 97%, runner-up 94% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 57 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gdp
Updated: 2026-08-24T13:20:49.441Z
Category: economy
Status: active
Closes: 2027-07-29

## Headline

- Leader: Above 0.0% at 97%
- Runner-up: Above 0.5% at 94%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $1K

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 0.0% | 97¢ | +3pp | $99 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-00-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t0.0 |
| Above 0.5% | 94¢ | −8pp | $2 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-05-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t0.5 |
| Above 0.0% | 90¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-00-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t0.0 |
| Above 1.0% | 87¢ | −13pp | $33 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-10-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t1.0 |
| Above 0.5% | 80¢ | −42pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-05-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t0.5 |
| Above 1.5% | 78¢ | −2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-15-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t1.5 |
| Above 1.0% | 70¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-10-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t1.0 |
| Above 2.0% | 67¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-20-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t2.0 |
| Above 1.5% | 60¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-15-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t1.5 |
| Above 2.5% | 55¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-25-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t2.5 |
| Above 2.0% | 49¢ | +1pp | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-20-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t2.0 |
| Above 2.5% | 34¢ | −10pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-25-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t2.5 |
| Above 3.0% | 26¢ | −4pp | $243 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-30-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t3.0 |
| Above 3.5% | 25¢ | −7pp | $400 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-35-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t3.5 |
| Above 3.0% | 24¢ | −9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-30-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t3.0 |
| Above 4.0% | 15¢ | +1pp | $317 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-40-in-q3-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-26oct30-t4.0 |
| Above 3.5% | 14¢ | +6pp | $68 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-35-in-q1-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27apr29-t3.5 |
| Above 3.5% | 13¢ | +1pp | $1 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-35-in-q4-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-27jan28-t3.5 |
| Above 3.5% | 12¢ | ±0 | $25 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-35-in-q2-2027-kalshi-kxgdp-27jul29-t3.5 |
| Above 4.0% | 8¢ | ±0 | $78 | kalshi | /markets/will-real-gdp-increase-by-more-than-40-in-q4-2026-kalshi-kxgdp-27jan28-t4.0 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above 0.0% | Above 0.5% | Above 0.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | 26 | 26 | 90 |
| 2026-08-03 | 94 | 86 | 90 |
| 2026-08-10 | — | 77 | 86 |
| 2026-08-17 | — | — | 88 |
| 2026-08-18 | — | 94 | — |
| 2026-08-20 | — | 86 | 32 |
| 2026-08-23 | — | — | 88 |

_21 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-08-20 · Above 0.0% −56pp 88→32¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 0.0% +55pp 32→87¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 0.5% −42pp 80→38¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-20 · Above 1.0% −42pp 70→28¢ · kalshi
- 2026-08-22 · Above 1.0% +42pp 28→70¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This question assesses whether U.S. real GDP will grow faster than 4.0% annualized in the first quarter of 2026. At 92% probability, markets are pricing this as highly likely. The current assessment reflects recent economic momentum: labor markets remain relatively resilient, consumer spending has held up, and inflation has moderated from peak levels, creating conditions that could support above-trend growth. The primary bearish case rests on potential demand slowdown, tightening financial conditions, or external shocks. Resolution depends on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's official Q1 2026 real GDP estimate, scheduled for release in late April 2026. The gap between the leader's high confidence (92%) and the runner-up's lower probability (87%) suggests material uncertainty persists about whether growth will exceed the 4.0% threshold versus staying between 2.5–3.5%.

### Key factors

- Q1 2026 labor force participation and employment levels relative to trend — weak job growth would reduce income and consumption capacity
- PCE spending momentum through March 2026 — consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of GDP and recent retail data suggests moderate but not exceptional demand
- Federal Reserve policy stance and financial conditions between now and Q1 2026 — restrictive rates or credit tightening could dampen investment and hiring
- Goods trade balance and inventory accumulation — large imports or inventory rundown could subtract significantly from GDP calculation
- Official BEA release of Q1 2026 real GDP estimate in late April 2026 — this is the deterministic resolution event that will settle the contract

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gdp
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gdp

## License

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