# US Nominal GDP in 2026

> Above $29.0 trillion leads at 95%, runner-up 95% across 20 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 40 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gdpnom
Updated: 2026-06-08T03:20:13.190Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: Above $29.0 trillion at 95%
- Runner-up: Above $29.2 trillion at 95%
- Outcomes: 20 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $29.0 trillion | 95¢ | +23pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-290-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-29.0 |
| Above $29.2 trillion | 95¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-292-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-29.2 |
| Above $29.4 trillion | 95¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-294-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-29.4 |
| Above $29.6 trillion | 94¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-296-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-29.6 |
| Above $29.8 trillion | 94¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-298-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-29.8 |
| Above $30.0 trillion | 93¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-300-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-30.0 |
| Above $30.2 trillion | 93¢ | +20pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-302-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-30.2 |
| Above $30.4 trillion | 92¢ | +91pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-304-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-30.4 |
| Above $30.6 trillion | 92¢ | −6pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-306-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-30.6 |
| Above $30.8 trillion | 92¢ | +91pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-308-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-30.8 |
| Above $31.0 trillion | 90¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-310-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-31.0 |
| Above $31.2 trillion | 90¢ | +89pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-312-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-31.2 |
| Above $31.4 trillion | 89¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-314-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-31.4 |
| Above $31.6 trillion | 89¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-316-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-31.6 |
| Above $31.8 trillion | 80¢ | +12pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-318-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-31.8 |
| Above $32.0 trillion | 77¢ | — | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-320-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-32.0 |
| Above $32.2 trillion | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-322-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-32.2 |
| Above $32.4 trillion | 38¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-324-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-32.4 |
| Above $32.6 trillion | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-326-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-32.6 |
| Above $32.8 trillion | 21¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/us-nominal-gdp-in-2026-above-328-trillion-kalshi-kxgdpnom-us26-32.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Above $29.0 trillion | Above $29.2 trillion | Above $29.4 trillion |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-22 | 72 | 74 | 74 |
| 2026-05-29 | 95 | 95 | 95 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations for U.S. nominal GDP to reach a specific threshold in 2026. The 52% probability suggests roughly even odds, indicating significant uncertainty about whether nominal growth will exceed current market consensus levels. The main drivers are near-term inflation dynamics and real economic growth rates. Q2 2026 GDP data, which will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis in late May or early June, serves as the critical upcoming data point to resolve this uncertainty. The extremely low pricing on contracts betting for nominal growth above 2.5% in Q2 2026 (3¢) versus modest pricing on 1.5% growth (23¢) indicates markets view sustained higher nominal growth as unlikely in the near term, though full-year figures may differ from quarterly snapshots.

### Key factors

- Q2 2026 BEA advance GDP report will provide the first official quarterly nominal growth data, directly informing whether thresholds are met
- Core inflation readings throughout April and May will influence expectations for price growth component of nominal GDP
- Federal Reserve policy stance and any signaled rate changes affect both inflation expectations and real growth prospects
- Corporate earnings and labor market data in May-June will shape forecasts for nominal growth acceleration or deceleration
- Comparisons to 2025 baseline nominal GDP levels will determine whether 2026 targets require acceleration versus continuation of existing trends

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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