# GDP growth in 2026

> 1.6% to 2.0% leads at 26%, runner-up 24% across 16 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 12 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gdpyear
Updated: 2026-06-24T06:20:49.023Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: active
Closes: 2030-02-28

## Headline

- Leader: 1.6% to 2.0% at 26%
- Runner-up: 2.1% to 2.5% at 24%
- Outcomes: 16 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (16 contracts)
- 24h volume: $73

## Bound contracts (16)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 26¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2026-16-to-20-kalshi-kxgdpyear-26-b1.8 |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 24¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2026-21-to-25-kalshi-kxgdpyear-26-b2.3 |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 15¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-26-to-30-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b2.8 |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2026-11-to-15-kalshi-kxgdpyear-26-b1.3 |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2026-26-to-30-kalshi-kxgdpyear-26-b2.8 |
| 2.1% to 2.5% | 13¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-21-to-25-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b2.3 |
| 2.6% to 3.0% | 11¢ | +3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2029-26-to-30-kalshi-kxgdpyear-29-b2.8 |
| 1.1% to 1.5% | 9¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-11-to-15-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b1.3 |
| 1.6% to 2.0% | 9¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-16-to-20-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b1.8 |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 7¢ | +2pp | $54 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2029-31-to-35-kalshi-kxgdpyear-29-b3.3 |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 7¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-31-to-35-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b3.3 |
| 3.1% to 3.5% | 5¢ | ±0 | $19 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2026-31-to-35-kalshi-kxgdpyear-26-b3.3 |
| 0.1% to 0.5% | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-01-to-05-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b0.3 |
| 0.6% to 1.0% | 4¢ | +2pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-06-to-10-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b0.8 |
| 0.6% to 1.0% | 3¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2026-06-to-10-kalshi-kxgdpyear-26-b0.8 |
| 3.6% to 4.0% | 3¢ | −4pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/gdp-growth-in-2027-36-to-40-kalshi-kxgdpyear-27-b3.8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 1.6% to 2.0% | 2.1% to 2.5% | 2.6% to 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | 26 | — | — |
| 2026-05-27 | 25 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-29 | 27 | 25 | — |
| 2026-05-31 | — | 24 | — |
| 2026-06-08 | 25 | — | 7 |
| 2026-06-09 | — | — | 12 |
| 2026-06-11 | 25 | — | — |
| 2026-06-16 | 26 | — | — |

_13 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · 3.6% to 4.0% −4pp 7→3¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-17 · 1.6% to 2.0% −3pp 12→9¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This 19% probability reflects market expectations that US GDP growth will reach or exceed 3.5% in 2026. The forecast sits well below 50%, suggesting traders expect moderate growth rather than robust expansion. Current contract pricing shows the highest concentration of bets (24¢) on 2.0–2.5% growth, indicating consensus around slower-than-recent-trend performance. The gap between Kalshi (32% average) and Polymarket (16% average) suggests disagreement about growth likelihood—possibly reflecting different interpretations of inflation trajectories, labor market cooling, or Federal Reserve policy timing. The Q1 2026 GDP report, typically released in late April, will provide actual data that either validates or contradicts current market positioning. Traders face uncertainty around consumer spending resilience, business investment, and whether recent disinflation gains will hold without triggering a slowdown.

### Key factors

- Q1 2026 GDP print released late April 2026 will provide actual growth data; markets currently price subdued expectations with majority bets clustered at 2.0–2.5%
- 16 percentage-point premium on Kalshi contracts versus Polymarket suggests structural differences in how venues' user bases assess growth probability or interpret available economic indicators
- Highest-volume contract (US GDP 3.0–3.5%, $1,234 24h vol) trades at only 7¢, indicating low conviction that growth will exceed 3% but fall short of 3.5%
- Multiple low-priced tails (<1.0% and 1.0–1.5% combined represent only 19¢ in implied probability), suggesting markets assign minimal recession or near-stagnation risk
- Recent Fed policy stance and published economic forecasts from CBO and major banks will influence pre-data positioning and post-release repricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gdpyear
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gdpyear
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

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