# What will the FDA's decision be on Gedatolisib by Celcuity Inc. in July 2026

> Full Approval leads at 76%, runner-up 9% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 53 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gedatolisib
Updated: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.449Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-08-01

## Headline

- Leader: Full Approval at 76%
- Runner-up: Denied (CRL Issued) at 9%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $23

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Full Approval | 76¢ | ±0 | $23 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-fdas-decision-be-on-gedatolisib-by-c-kalshi-kxgedatolisib-26-fa |
| Denied (CRL Issued) | 9¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-fdas-decision-be-on-gedatolisib-by-c-kalshi-kxgedatolisib-26-dn |
| Conditional / Accelerated Approval | 5¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-fdas-decision-be-on-gedatolisib-by-c-kalshi-kxgedatolisib-26-ca |
| No Decision | 4¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/what-will-the-fdas-decision-be-on-gedatolisib-by-c-kalshi-kxgedatolisib-26-nd |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Full Approval | Denied (CRL Issued) | Conditional / Accelerated Approval |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-09 | 79 | 5 | 3 |
| 2026-06-10 | — | 7 | 4 |
| 2026-06-14 | 76 | 4 | 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | 76 | 7 | 7 |
| 2026-06-19 | — | 8 | 7 |
| 2026-06-20 | 73 | 7 | 6 |
| 2026-06-25 | 75 | — | 5 |

_12 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-20 · Full Approval −3pp 76→73¢ · kalshi
- 2026-06-21 · No Decision −3pp 6→3¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

Markets are pricing an approximately 75% likelihood that the FDA will grant full approval for Gedatolisib (a Celcuity Inc. oncology candidate) by the end of July 2026. This probability reflects the drug's regulatory progress toward a potential approval decision within the specified timeframe. The current level is driven by the timing of the FDA review cycle and the therapeutic area's historical approval rates for similar agents. The primary catalyst would be the formal FDA decision, which typically follows completion of the agency's standard or priority review period. Approval odds would increase if recent clinical data demonstrate efficacy and safety improvements over existing treatments, while they would decline if the FDA issues a complete response letter requesting additional data, or if the decision timeline extends beyond July.

### Key factors

- FDA review timeline completion: whether the agency's decision date falls within July 2026 versus extending into later months
- Recent clinical trial outcomes for Gedatolisib: efficacy and safety profile relative to competitor drugs in the same indication
- Celcuity's regulatory communication history: any preliminary feedback or deficiency letters from the FDA before July
- Historical approval rates for oncology candidates in this drug class and indication
- Competitive landscape: whether other similar agents recently gained approval, which could influence FDA precedent and decision momentum

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gedatolisib
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gedatolisib

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.