# Gemini 3.5 released by...

> July 31 leads at 36%, runner-up 32% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gemini-35-released
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:44.084Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-07-31

## Headline

- Leader: July 31 at 36%
- Runner-up: June 30 at 32%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $12K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 36¢ | −5pp | $24 | polymarket | /markets/gemini-35-released-by-july-31-polymarket-0xeb622a490bcf56e4760070ab67e77430dc4a1c9e7b2f0fec6e177c4917fcc6d1 |
| June 30 | 32¢ | −1pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/gemini-35-released-by-june-30-polymarket-0x4370803e1beb74348ca8c60867808df202458112f43ab79000d477bd1074d519 |
| May 31 | 10¢ | +1pp | $9K | polymarket | /markets/gemini-35-released-by-may-31-polymarket-0x009cb79c526eff4af80e0e568c648a165a837c0417f4e1de3cde02bfc4a3ab42 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | July 31 | June 30 | May 31 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-09 | — | 21 | 18 |
| 2026-04-25 | — | 35 | 16 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 45 | 20 |
| 2026-05-06 | 31 | 20 | 8 |
| 2026-05-07 | 37 | 26 | 3 |
| 2026-05-08 | 32 | 25 | 4 |

_27 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · June 30 −31pp 51→20¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · May 31 −15pp 23→8¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · June 30 +6pp 45→51¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · June 30 +6pp 20→26¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · July 31 +6pp 31→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market estimates a 23% chance that Google releases Gemini 3.5 by May 31, 2026. The probability reflects uncertainty about Google's release timeline, with contracts suggesting traders view a June 30 deadline (40¢) as significantly more likely than May 31 (19¢). The main drivers are Google's historical release pace for iterative model updates and public statements about their AI roadmap. The May 31 deadline is the nearest near-term catalyst; if Google announces or releases Gemini 3.5 before then, the May contract resolves positively. If no announcement occurs by early June, traders would likely shift probability to the June 30 contract, indicating sequential rather than simultaneous releases are expected.

### Key factors

- Google's track record shows roughly 4-6 month intervals between major Gemini releases (2.0 to 3.0); current date is May 3, giving only 28 days until May 31 deadline
- The June 30 contract trades at 40¢ versus 19¢ for May 31, suggesting the market assigns 2x higher probability to the later date, indicating concentration of releases in Q2
- No official Google announcement or leak as of May 3, 2026 confirms a May 31 release, which typically would be publicly disclosed weeks in advance
- Competing LLM releases (Grok 5 showing 10¢ for June 30) suggest crowded release windows may influence timing decisions
- Trading volume on the May 31 contract ($1,448 in 24h) is substantial enough to indicate active price discovery rather than illiquidity-driven mispricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gemini-35-released
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gemini-35-released

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.