# Will Output Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $5/MTok in 2026

> $8/MTok or below leads at 19%, runner-up 10% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 1 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gemini35oy
Updated: 2026-06-27T12:20:49.191Z
Category: crypto
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: $8/MTok or below at 19%
- Runner-up: $7/MTok or below at 10%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $8/MTok or below | 19¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35oy-27-na-8 |
| $7/MTok or below | 10¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35oy-27-na-7 |
| $6/MTok or below | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-output-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35oy-27-na-6 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $8/MTok or below | $7/MTok or below | $6/MTok or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | 33 | 22 | 13 |
| 2026-06-10 | 24 | 13 | 7 |
| 2026-06-11 | — | — | 7 |
| 2026-06-14 | — | 11 | 5 |
| 2026-06-19 | 19 | 10 | — |
| 2026-06-23 | 21 | 11 | 4 |
| 2026-06-26 | 19 | 10 | — |

_15 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates a 33% chance that Google will price Gemini 3.5 Flash output tokens at $8/million tokens or below by end of 2026. The contract structure shows tight clustering around the $5–$8 range, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about pricing strategy rather than extreme outcomes. Pricing will depend primarily on Google's competitive positioning versus Claude, GPT-4, and other large language models, as well as whether demand pressures push prices up or cost reductions enable cuts. A key driver is whether Google maintains aggressive pricing to gain market share or raises prices as the model becomes production-critical for enterprise customers. The biggest uncertainty resolver will be Google's official pricing announcements and any shifts tied to new model releases or competitive moves in Q3–Q4 2026.

### Key factors

- Current Gemini 3.5 Flash pricing as baseline reference: published rates show whether the market is pricing improvement or degradation from today's level
- Competitive pricing by Anthropic (Claude), OpenAI (GPT-4o), and open-source alternatives, since enterprise buyers actively arbitrage token costs across providers
- Google's historical token pricing trajectory: whether recent trends show consistent reductions or price stability after initial launch discounts
- Announced major model updates or tiers by Google in 2026: new model releases or tier restructuring could reset pricing for 3.5 Flash specifically
- Volume commitments and enterprise contract discounts: whether bulk-user pricing distorts the 'public' per-token rate captured in market data

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gemini35oy
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gemini35oy

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.