# Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $1.00/MTok in 2026

> $1.25/MTok or below leads at 25%, runner-up 17% across 4 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 25 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gemini35y
Updated: 2026-06-29T01:20:49.123Z
Category: crypto
Status: active
Closes: 2027-04-01

## Headline

- Leader: $1.25/MTok or below at 25%
- Runner-up: $1.00/MTok or below at 17%
- Outcomes: 4 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Kalshi (4 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (4)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $1.25/MTok or below | 25¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-input-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35y-27-na-1.25 |
| $1.00/MTok or below | 17¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-input-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35y-27-na-1.00 |
| $0.75/MTok or below | 11¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-input-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35y-27-na-0.75 |
| $0.50/MTok or below | 4¢ | ±0 | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-input-token-price-paid-tier-of-google-gemini-kalshi-kxgemini35y-27-na-0.50 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | $1.25/MTok or below | $1.00/MTok or below | $0.75/MTok or below |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | 39 | 30 | 19 |
| 2026-06-14 | 25 | — | — |
| 2026-06-17 | — | 18 | 12 |
| 2026-06-21 | 25 | 17 | 11 |
| 2026-06-22 | 26 | — | — |
| 2026-06-26 | 25 | 17 | 11 |

_18 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This market estimates the likelihood that Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price will remain at or below $1.00 per million tokens through 2026, currently priced at 34%. The probability reflects uncertainty about Google's pricing strategy for its faster, more cost-efficient model variant. Two main drivers shape current sentiment: (1) competitive pressure from other LLM providers who have aggressively cut inference costs, and (2) Google's historical pattern of maintaining price premiums for newer model versions before eventual reductions. The market shows material skepticism—traders assign only a 25% chance the price stays this low, suggesting expectations that Google will price Gemini 3.5 Flash at a modest premium above this threshold. Resolution depends on Google's official pricing announcement and any publicly communicated rate changes before December 2026. If competing models or market demand trigger price wars, downward pressure would increase; conversely, differentiated performance could justify holding prices higher.

### Key factors

- Google's current pricing for Gemini 3.5 Flash and any publicly announced pricing structure relative to the $1.00/MTok threshold
- Competitor pricing actions by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta for comparable inference-optimized models
- Evidence of market-driven price compression or Google's stated strategy regarding pricing tiers and cost reduction timelines
- Google's historical pricing evolution for Gemini variants—whether new models typically launch at premiums or competitive parity
- Volume and adoption signals for Gemini 3.5 Flash that might influence Google's willingness to compete on price

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gemini35y
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gemini35y

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.