# Georgia Governor Republican Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-18T07:20:20.503Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Burt Jones at 60%
- Runner-up: Rick Jackson at 34%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burt Jones | 60¢ | −61pp | $7K | polymarket | /markets/georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner-burt-jo-polymarket-0xb20ab327dc64a405ec80a0775c5947b594581abc61d814316abc355064e16e5a |
| Rick Jackson | 34¢ | +63pp | $4K | polymarket | /markets/georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner-rick-ja-polymarket-0x79d5f2d519b21ebcb57ea1f926b5f37beecb2b8c41a3d44f06e206240f4e31dc |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Burt Jones | Rick Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 80 | 20 |
| 2026-06-05 | 70 | — |
| 2026-06-06 | 71 | 24 |
| 2026-06-12 | 57 | 41 |
| 2026-06-17 | 7 | 94 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-17 · Rick Jackson +63pp 31→94¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · Burt Jones −61pp 68→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · Burt Jones +15pp 56→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-15 · Rick Jackson −14pp 44→30¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-13 · Burt Jones −3pp 57→54¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that a Republican will win Georgia's gubernatorial primary election. Currently trading at 43%, it suggests meaningful uncertainty about the Republican field, with Brad Raffensperger's contract at 5 cents indicating low confidence in any single frontrunner. The probability level depends on two main considerations: first, the strength and diversity of the Republican candidate pool and whether a consensus candidate emerges; second, the influence of national Republican leadership and Trump-aligned figures on Georgia voters' primary preferences. The resolution of this uncertainty will likely come during the campaign period leading to Georgia's primary election date, when polling data, fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns become clearer signals of candidate viability.

### Key factors

- Brad Raffensperger is the only Georgia Governor Republican Primary contract visible at 5 cents, suggesting no clear frontrunner in the current field
- The 43% overall probability is moderately below 50%, indicating market skepticism about Republican primary competitiveness or candidate strength
- Polymarket has 19 contracts on this race, suggesting active trading but potentially fragmented opinion across multiple candidates
- Historical Georgia Republican primary turnout and voter preferences in previous gubernatorial cycles will influence how each candidate performs
- National political dynamics and any federal indictments or major news events could significantly shift candidate viability between now and the primary vote

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=georgia-governor-republican-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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