# Georgia Republican Senate Primary Winner

> Closed. Last odds frozen 1 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner
Updated: 2026-06-18T07:20:20.503Z
Category: politics · Topic: election-2026
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-05-19

## Headline

- Leader: Mike Collins at 59%
- Runner-up: Derek Dooley at 39%
- Outcomes: 2 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (2 contracts)
- 24h volume: $4K

## Bound contracts (2)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Collins | 59¢ | +2pp | $3K | polymarket | /markets/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner-mike-coll-polymarket-0xc9ae2656fa5f75ea4626d490a89398d75222f37624c1dd32c3ebe763c4ecec77 |
| Derek Dooley | 39¢ | −2pp | $383 | polymarket | /markets/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner-derek-doo-polymarket-0x3b408ff1bc692be77ce9c3b1044ca4f6a0af3c1d2f245cb096c299005c4a0d48 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Mike Collins | Derek Dooley |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | 86 | 13 |
| 2026-06-05 | 84 | 15 |
| 2026-06-12 | 93 | 7 |
| 2026-06-17 | 98 | 1 |

_29 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-14 · Mike Collins +3pp 94→97¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-14 · Derek Dooley −3pp 5→2¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability indicates that markets assess an 85% chance that the leading Republican candidate wins Georgia's Senate primary. The current odds reflect positioning among the field of candidates competing for the Republican nomination. Movement in this probability would likely stem from candidate endorsements, campaign funding announcements, or shifts in polling data measuring voter preference among registered Republicans in Georgia. The primary election date itself would be the key event that resolves this contract, determining the actual winner and settling all related bets based on official results.

### Key factors

- Current market pricing reflects an 85% probability for the leading candidate versus 4% for the runner-up, indicating substantial but not overwhelming confidence in the favorite
- Candidate endorsements, particularly from high-profile figures or sitting officeholders, historically correlate with shifts in Republican primary probabilities
- Campaign finance disclosures showing fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position would provide concrete data on candidate resources and viability
- Public polling data from Georgia among likely Republican primary voters would establish whether market odds align with or diverge from survey-based preferences
- Early voting or election results from similar recent Republican primaries in other states could signal regional momentum or enthusiasm that affects Georgia positioning

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=georgia-republican-senate-primary-winner
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/election-2026

## License

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