# Germany BBL

> Winner: Bayern Munich leads at 49%, runner-up 15% across 14 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-bbl
Updated: 2026-05-09T04:20:40.052Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-31

## Headline

- Leader: Winner: Bayern Munich at 49%
- Runner-up: Winner: Bamberg Baskets at 15%
- Outcomes: 14 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (14 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (14)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winner: Bayern Munich | 49¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-bayern-munich-polymarket-0xe9792ece93ef3da0fbc1664f58d7e32887e84d58f1cad0490b380f7af5649fab |
| Winner: Bamberg Baskets | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-bamberg-baskets-polymarket-0x5824826b3e13459298c8d0f400f49f052c3265ac19071c2b53932f4b5bef221a |
| Winner: MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-mhp-riesen-ludwigsburg-polymarket-0x75128fe54d833df3e49f20e82911275aac322308fd2115e926e0da30cde4ca11 |
| Winner: Alba Berlin | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-alba-berlin-polymarket-0xde61d80b3d37e12cc65a70e12c418518ea5805610655e93ecf6f112dccff1dc1 |
| Winner: Rostock Seawolves | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-rostock-seawolves-polymarket-0x0d6385ef89d625136e8496bc38db3019bcb64e180083a13b786d604bc6ceb9f2 |
| Winner: Fitness First Würzburg Baskets | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-fitness-first-wrzburg-baskets-polymarket-0x193249eb049af313884d1d004a9393c7211b8070a94dbdba156b6e4fd10083e7 |
| Winner: Veolia Towers Hamburg | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-veolia-towers-hamburg-polymarket-0xbe217240e69dbf3f2e4a4db20b7e9b6494a3a9cfb0ca14794e07887912647d46 |
| Winner: EWE Baskets Oldenburg | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-ewe-baskets-oldenburg-polymarket-0xc634054ba38e7c85bcc4214841fef64824d6f9c37b700ead5b2da6ab0efc67f5 |
| Winner: Niners Chemnitz | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-niners-chemnitz-polymarket-0xd5d1e12cbec097c1c60bc415fed37b105b98560f04fedaafa6f77904ef3f27d7 |
| Winner: Rasta Vechta | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-rasta-vechta-polymarket-0x881e4445eaae339dd29623b1607d04e1c4fab696154b2f0e588af5c70ee80d74 |
| Winner: Ratiopharm Ulm | 15¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-ratiopharm-ulm-polymarket-0x783a121f596458cb9e158a2a8adae4e39dd648fc7bbb05c0ff0b2c3aa37aa24d |
| Winner: Syntainics MBC (Weißenfels) | 15¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-syntainics-mbc-weienfels-polymarket-0xc63f90281a7147925037729de3d5d5c76c69136ed4313fdd7d7ede6a24176a7f |
| Winner: Telekom Baskets Bonn | 14¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-telekom-baskets-bonn-polymarket-0xf29260f64f5145a2a72e31dadc3777ece88745b2a8d6330186b97fb63121108d |
| Winner: Vet-Concept Gladiators Trier | 14¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-bbl-winner-vet-concept-gladiators-trier-polymarket-0xe63158b0ff94c0caee32b0be690cc5db9e12ffc66e4c7b51cd8cbb6aea633a62 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Winner: Bayern Munich | Winner: Bamberg Baskets | Winner: MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-01 | 50 | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-02 | — | 49 | 49 |
| 2026-05-08 | 49 | — | 15 |

_11 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Veolia Towers Hamburg −35pp 50→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: MHP Riesen Ludwigsburg −34pp 49→15¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Winner: Rostock Seawolves −33pp 48→15¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Rostock Seawolves will win the 2026 German Basketball League (BBL) championship. The market is currently pricing five teams with nearly identical odds around 50 cents each, indicating genuine uncertainty about the league's outcome. The primary drivers of these prices are recent regular-season performance, roster strength, and playoff seeding, which will be finalized by season's end. The championship will be resolved once the BBL playoff tournament concludes, typically in May or early June, making head-to-head matchups and team health the critical determinants. Volume across contracts is minimal, suggesting limited recent trading activity rather than active price discovery.

### Key factors

- Five distinct teams are priced between 49-50 cents, indicating the market sees no clear favorite and expects competitive playoff matchups
- Zero trading volume in the past 24 hours across top contracts suggests these prices may not reflect current market sentiment or recent developments
- Rostock Seawolves, Würzburg Baskets, and Science City Jena are tied at 50 cents despite potentially different playoff positions and regular-season records
- BBL playoff format and seeding structure directly determine matchup difficulty; teams' playoff paths will shift these probabilities materially
- The championship outcome depends on quarter-final through final results, compressed into 2-3 weeks, making injury status and roster availability in that window critical variables

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-bbl
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=germany-bbl

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.