# Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026 — 1.3%+

> Closed. Last odds frozen 5 d ago — final outcome on the venue.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-gdp-growth-q2
Updated: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z
Category: economy · Topic: recession
Status: historical
Closes: 2026-07-30

## Headline

- Leader: 0.1-0.3% at 54%
- Runner-up: 0.4-0.6% at 47%
- Outcomes: 6 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (6 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (6)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.1-0.3% | 54¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-01-03-polymarket-0x00139748aa8dfe595589a72f959b9522235939d0e8b5e488372438a45da2e681 |
| 0.4-0.6% | 47¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-04-06-polymarket-0xb3db298098bcb999dc9c91a4515f55ef191b1a9810488e68273d0ffed5faa56e |
| 1.0-1.2% | 40¢ | +9pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-10-12-polymarket-0x0df2be93c060d50d769dcceed5af845bf73c16ea1c3bbfe1d08374767f1a2668 |
| 1.3%+ | 35¢ | −5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-13-polymarket-0x644762669ddcefc9a59866175ce7f9d59cd07ea715bdcb4e3654772131de351c |
| 0.7-0.9% | 28¢ | −3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-07-09-polymarket-0x5cfd72a3e92385652cf8ec8802a66bfd73164175cf7f0c3d5ffc2a911fff8cf1 |
| ≤0.0% | 28¢ | +7pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-gdp-growth-in-q2-2026-00-polymarket-0xb895a712418096470dd93b6a400958ad8dc8f6a918fea84ed5406d573c6f71ca |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | 0.1-0.3% | 0.4-0.6% | 1.0-1.2% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-27 | 38 | 39 | 36 |
| 2026-06-10 | 49 | 36 | 18 |
| 2026-06-17 | 52 | 47 | 36 |
| 2026-06-18 | 53 | 48 | 45 |

_23 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-18 · 1.0-1.2% +9pp 36→45¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · ≤0.0% +7pp 33→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 1.3%+ −6pp 46→40¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-17 · 1.0-1.2% −5pp 41→36¢ · polymarket
- 2026-06-18 · 1.3%+ −5pp 40→35¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that German GDP will grow at least 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Markets currently expect slower growth instead, with the leading outcome pricing in stagnation or contraction (≤0.0%). Germany's growth trajectory depends on whether consumer spending and industrial production accelerate from recent levels, or continue to face headwinds from higher energy costs and weak external demand. The decisive data point will be the official GDP estimate for Q2 2026, released by Destatis (Germany's statistics office) in mid-August 2026. This figures into broader European economic conditions and potential ECB policy responses, making the outcome relevant for eurozone forecasts.

### Key factors

- Q1 2026 German GDP growth baseline: actual reported growth rate will establish whether momentum exists for 1.3%+ achievement in Q2
- Energy import prices and manufacturing PMI through June 2026: sustained decline or spike would materially shift growth expectations in either direction
- Consumer confidence indices and retail sales data: visible weakness here would reduce probability of 1.3%+ threshold significantly
- Destatis preliminary vs. final GDP releases: revisions between August and September 2026 could alter contract settlement amounts if outcomes are on margins
- Eurozone-wide demand indicators: external demand conditions in France, Italy, and broader EU affect German export-dependent sectors disproportionately

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-gdp-growth-q2
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=germany-gdp-growth-q2
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/recession

## License

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