# Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire

> Germany leads at 65%, runner-up 21% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-vs-cte-divoire
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.740Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-20

## Headline

- Leader: Germany at 65%
- Runner-up: Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire) at 21%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $15

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 65¢ | ±0 | $15 | polymarket | /markets/germany-vs-cte-divoire-germany-polymarket-0x232342e2a9200b203703a816f9d99d1c6a872333567af16f43d67a255e1a6aa8 |
| Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire) | 21¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-vs-cte-divoire-draw-germany-vs-cte-divoire-polymarket-0x2b4abd4c4f6336b33cdaf7aa65430ef1f4afe7122d1678b1f3d022b4357cdbf5 |
| Côte d'Ivoire | 15¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/germany-vs-cte-divoire-cte-divoire-polymarket-0xd9a23115df9698780e32b300739bcacadc9395e826d1b4c4608d404175d7ccea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Germany | Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire) | Côte d'Ivoire |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 66 | 23 | — |
| 2026-05-01 | 68 | 25 | 15 |
| 2026-05-02 | 68 | 27 | 13 |
| 2026-05-08 | 65 | 22 | 16 |
| 2026-05-09 | — | 22 | 19 |

_8 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-06 · Côte d'Ivoire +5pp 13→18¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Draw (Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire) −5pp 27→22¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Germany −4pp 69→65¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Germany +3pp 68→71¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Côte d'Ivoire −3pp 19→16¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that Germany will defeat Côte d'Ivoire in an upcoming match. The 35% aggregate probability indicates moderate confidence in a Germany victory, though significant disagreement exists between venues: Polymarket prices Germany at 70 cents (roughly 70% win probability) while Kalshi's limited activity suggests around 11%. Germany enters as the stronger team by historical rankings and recent form, which supports higher win odds. Côte d'Ivoire's chances are constrained by competitive disparity, though upsets occur in football. The wide cross-venue gap of 25 percentage points suggests either different trader bases assessing available information differently, or insufficient liquidity on one venue to establish a stable consensus price. Match context, team lineups, and recent performance data closer to game day would likely narrow disagreement and clarify the true probability.

### Key factors

- Germany's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record versus Côte d'Ivoire's comparative standing
- Current squad availability and injury status for both teams at time of match
- The specific competition format and stakes (tournament stage, group play, or friendly)
- Volume imbalance between Kalshi and Polymarket suggests liquidity on Kalshi may be too low to establish reliable pricing
- Match conditions and venue factors that could neutralize Germany's typical advantages

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-vs-cte-divoire
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=germany-vs-cte-divoire

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.