# Germany vs. Curaçao

> Germany leads at 91%, runner-up 7% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 3 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-vs-curaao
Updated: 2026-05-09T05:05:40.619Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-14

## Headline

- Leader: Germany at 91%
- Runner-up: Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao) at 7%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $2K

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | 91¢ | −3pp | $1K | polymarket | /markets/germany-vs-curaao-germany-polymarket-0x00cf3efc18a950cf442049aa0770903f0ab8606212499e0e4196bf74c102c456 |
| Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao) | 7¢ | −3pp | $691 | polymarket | /markets/germany-vs-curaao-draw-germany-vs-curaao-polymarket-0x18f73aca12019d3fc2a03e7af28f6ebcec12634413819605d7cfa3db20073f26 |
| Curaçao | 3¢ | +1pp | $559 | polymarket | /markets/germany-vs-curaao-curaao-polymarket-0x0fe5bb2f2da60b0bcb4855dc0cc3101dd1028f6639479bdeefecacb0102869a8 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Germany | Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao) | Curaçao |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 95 | 5 | 4 |
| 2026-05-02 | 89 | 6 | 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | 89 | 7 | 3 |

_7 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Germany −6pp 95→89¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-06 · Germany +5pp 89→94¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao) +4pp 6→10¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Germany −3pp 92→89¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Draw (Germany vs. Curaçao) −3pp 10→7¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability represents the market's assessment that Curaçao will win an upcoming football match against Germany. The 37% figure reflects significant confidence in a Germany victory, though the high trading volume on the Curaçao contract ($1209 in 24 hours) suggests real disagreement among participants. Germany is the favored team based on historical performance and ranking, but Curaçao odds remain non-negligible given that football matches involve inherent uncertainty. The primary drivers of this probability are team form, player availability, and tactical matchup dynamics. Resolution will occur when the match is completed, with the outcome determined by final score at full time (or extra time/penalties if applicable). Current contract prices show Germany heavily favored at 93¢ versus Curaçao at 3¢, indicating the market has priced in Germany as a clear favorite despite the aggregate showing 37% for Curaçao, suggesting potential data aggregation or contract specification differences.

### Key factors

- Germany holds a significant FIFA ranking and historical head-to-head advantage over Curaçao in international football matchups
- Trading volume concentration on the Curaçao contract ($1209 vs $196 for Germany) indicates disagreement on the true probability despite 93¢-3¢ price disparity
- Team form, injury status, and recent competitive results for both sides will directly influence match outcome
- Match timing and venue location affect playing conditions and home-field advantage dynamics
- The 37% probability implies roughly 1-in-3 odds for a Curaçao victory, reflecting non-trivial upset potential in football

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/germany-vs-curaao
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=germany-vs-curaao

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.