# Will Jaafar Jackson be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 35% across 18 contracts — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ggnom
Updated: 2026-09-25T06:20:50.666Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2027-12-08

## Headline

- Probability: 35% (liquidity-weighted across 18 contracts)
- Venue: Kalshi (18 contracts)
- 24h volume: $637

## Bound contracts (18)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katherine LaNasa | 53¢ | +9pp | $513 | kalshi | /markets/will-katherine-lanasa-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-f-kalshi-kxggnom-tvsactr26-klan |
| Jason Sudeikis | 53¢ | +6pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-sudeikis-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-kalshi-kxggnom-tvcacto26-jsud |
| Shawn Hatosy | 17¢ | −21pp | $50 | kalshi | /markets/will-shawn-hatosy-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-b-kalshi-kxggnom-tvsacto26-sluke |
| Project Hail Mary | 57¢ | ±0 | $7 | kalshi | /markets/will-project-hail-mary-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-kalshi-kxggnom-com26-pro |
| Fjord | 4¢ | −24pp | $5 | kalshi | /markets/will-fjord-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-best-mot-kalshi-kxggnom-dra26-fjo |
| Michelle Pfeiffer | 42¢ | — | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-michelle-pfeiffer-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-kalshi-kxggnom-tvdactr26-mpfi |
| Jason Bateman | 38¢ | +1pp | $4 | kalshi | /markets/will-jason-bateman-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-kalshi-kxggnom-tvsacto26-jbat |
| Matthew Rhys | 94¢ | — | $3 | kalshi | /markets/will-matthew-rhys-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-b-kalshi-kxggnom-tvcacto26-mrhy |
| The Beast of Mossy Bottom be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Animated at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom | 35¢ | +21pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shaun-the-sheep-the-beast-of-mossy-bottom-be-kalshi-kxggnom-ani26-sha |
| Ray Gunn | 45¢ | +22pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ray-gunn-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-best-kalshi-kxggnom-ani26-ray |
| Primetime | 8¢ | −3pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-primetime-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-best-kalshi-kxggnom-com26-pri |
| The Debut | 5¢ | −33pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-the-debut-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-best-kalshi-kxggnom-scr26-deb |
| Digger | 14¢ | +5pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-digger-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-best-mo-kalshi-kxggnom-com26-dig |
| Ryan Gosling | 48¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ryan-gosling-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-b-kalshi-kxggnom-cacto26-rgos |
| Ruth Madeley | 32¢ | +9pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-ruth-madeley-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-b-kalshi-kxggnom-dactr26-rmad |
| Shrinking | 56¢ | +1pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-shrinking-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-best-kalshi-kxggnom-tvcom26-shr |
| Meryl Streep | 26¢ | −27pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-meryl-streep-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-b-kalshi-kxggnom-cactr26-mstr |
| Penélope Cruz | 4¢ | −30pp | $0 | kalshi | /markets/will-penlope-cruz-be-on-the-list-of-nominees-for-b-kalshi-kxggnom-sactr26-pcru |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | 22 |
| 2026-09-23 | 39 |
| 2026-09-24 | 39 |
| 2026-09-25 | 26 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-09-23 · Meryl Streep +42pp 14→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-23 · Project Hail Mary +36pp 20→56¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · The Debut −33pp 37→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-25 · Penélope Cruz −30pp 34→4¢ · kalshi
- 2026-09-24 · Meryl Streep −27pp 56→29¢ · kalshi

## Analysis

This probability represents the chance that actor Jaafar Jackson receives a nomination for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards, currently estimated at 23%. The estimate reflects uncertainty about Jackson's film performance and competitive positioning against other actors for the 2026 awards cycle. The main drivers of this probability are the critical and audience reception of his upcoming film projects, his previous nomination history, and the overall strength of the competing actor pool. The Golden Globe nomination announcement, scheduled for early 2027, will definitively resolve this market. Until then, the probability may shift based on film festival screenings, critic reviews, and industry sentiment regarding his performances in the relevant eligibility window.

### Key factors

- Jaafar Jackson's filmography during the 2026 eligibility period and the critical reception of his lead dramatic roles
- His track record of previous Golden Globe nominations and industry recognition in comparable categories
- The competitive field of other actors vying for the five available nominations in the Best Actor Drama category
- The influence of film festival performances and critical consensus from major review outlets on the nomination voting body
- The timing and visibility of any major film releases featuring Jackson in lead dramatic roles before the January 2027 nomination announcement

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ggnom
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ggnom

## License

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