# Ghana vs. Panama

> Ghana leads at 46%, runner-up 27% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 10 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ghana-vs-panama
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:05:55.177Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-06-17

## Headline

- Leader: Ghana at 46%
- Runner-up: Draw (Ghana vs. Panama) at 27%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $11

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana | 46¢ | ±0 | $11 | polymarket | /markets/ghana-vs-panama-ghana-polymarket-0x0256ef63427ed0d9eefa1422eee948165a2a215b0741a339025fb08b2cf6e15d |
| Draw (Ghana vs. Panama) | 27¢ | −4pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ghana-vs-panama-draw-ghana-vs-panama-polymarket-0xc17c0b2fbaaf76f218153cc4d4c6c0dca65c9138317e2cbd1903c63ab70dc1ef |
| Panama | 27¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/ghana-vs-panama-panama-polymarket-0xeb0de200851ebb80eb722c8b02e2226fe76e91e86a7cfe7e38042632e42d5ae9 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ghana | Draw (Ghana vs. Panama) | Panama |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-30 | 46 | 27 | 27 |
| 2026-05-01 | 46 | 29 | 27 |
| 2026-05-02 | 46 | 25 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 46 | — | 29 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Ghana vs. Panama) −4pp 29→25¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Ghana wins in a direct matchup against Panama, currently priced at 35% across major prediction markets. The estimate reflects Ghana's recent tournament performance and head-to-head dynamics, though the 4 percentage-point gap between Polymarket and Kalshi suggests some disagreement about underlying strength. Ghana appears in multiple tournament contracts across different venues, with varying implied odds depending on the broader competition structure. The key driver would be the timing and format of any scheduled Ghana-Panama fixture, as well as confirmation of both teams' tournament participation and current roster status. Resolution hinges on an actual match result or official confirmation that such a match will not occur within the prediction window.

### Key factors

- Ghana-specific contract on Kalshi trades 5-9 percentage points higher (47¢ and 45¢) than broader tournament contracts (22¢-28¢), suggesting isolated Ghana strength or different event interpretations across contracts
- Polymarket shows notably higher aggregate probability (35%) than Kalshi (31%), a 4-point divergence that may reflect different participant bases or contract designs
- Volume concentration on Kalshi's direct winner contract ($20 24h) versus near-zero volume elsewhere indicates retail liquidity clustered on the simplest two-team format
- Multiple Ghana contracts exist across different tournament contexts (vs Panama, vs Croatia, vs England), suggesting either a group-stage scenario or repeated qualifying rounds that affect Ghana's path probability
- No recent 24-hour volume on the direct matchup contract on Polymarket despite being the primary venue for this event class, indicating stale pricing or low market confidence

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/ghana-vs-panama
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=ghana-vs-panama

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.