# Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Incheon United FC - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 72%, runner-up 53% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 5 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:10.735Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 72%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 53%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $464

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 72¢ | +1pp | $25 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xa65b3f00c04c8f9c82a3a11eb5949a25eb2ca203ab573cff58edfc562a6bb667 |
| Both Teams to Score | 53¢ | +1pp | $93 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xc5a45ee8d4b5c1307165e4d17e6861cbc8e29243b370317f9900971196dea2dc |
| O/U 2.5 | 46¢ | ±0 | $145 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xa64291410d5d40e454326a4ff0afdf86625dcfb7a9c4a7e8d68a4d5c42c690ac |
| O/U 3.5 | 25¢ | ±0 | $5 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x82ebfb6a59cfedce44a39f06c5cdc0ad756000fdea02b4fb96fcd3d0c7e60d90 |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) | 18¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x1f8f3607e51c323c67e31b72d91faedc1cfee70329aac10292bf17482cbd98af |
| O/U 4.5 | 11¢ | +1pp | $196 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x516f8739a9a63d0c9a5cab9c944c2ec9a55878ef62f65a6b7b3d774dab309620 |
| Incheon United FC (-1.5) | 11¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x5327892303a36694d793abcbb594a666d51dde49743916fffb9a3e90f9ab8de5 |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) | 6¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0xf3e5e2e77dfec0c1328f096a1d17dc65588161fedef9f1c8dd492d09d5d829e8 |
| Incheon United FC (-2.5) | 3¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-incheon-united-fc-more-marke-polymarket-0x9082af39d510e178828c98ae2aa8d995688740adaecde8a6cfe2f5165487b1ea |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 72 | 54 | 46 |
| 2026-05-07 | 72 | 54 | 46 |
| 2026-05-08 | 72 | 53 | 47 |
| 2026-05-09 | 73 | 54 | 47 |

_4 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-07 · Incheon United FC (-2.5) −9pp 16→7¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-08 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) −4pp 10→6¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · O/U 4.5 −3pp 14→11¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-1.5) −3pp 20→17¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-07 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC (-2.5) −3pp 13→10¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

The 65% probability indicates markets expect Gimcheon Sangmu FC versus Incheon United FC to exceed 1.5 total goals scored. The market structure reveals fragmented liquidity across multiple outcome contracts—goals under 1.5, over 3.5, and various goal-spread markets—with no single contract dominating price discovery. The lean toward over 1.5 goals reflects baseline expectations about K League scoring patterns, though the runner-up contract at 54% (likely an alternative total or spread) suggests meaningful disagreement about the match's offensive output. Resolution depends on the match outcome itself, which would determine the final goal total. Currently, zero trading volume in the past 24 hours indicates minimal recent price revision, suggesting either stable expectations or low market participation at current price levels.

### Key factors

- The O/U 1.5 contract leads at 65%, while O/U 3.5 trades at 36%, indicating asymmetric probability distribution across goal thresholds
- Gimcheon Sangmu FC spread contracts (−1.5 at 34¢, −2.5 at 29¢) trade higher than Incheon United equivalents (28-29¢), reflecting either stronger expected performance or market sentiment favoring Gimcheon
- Zero 24-hour trading volume across all contracts suggests the market lacks active liquidity to validate or challenge current price levels
- The difference between the leader (65%) and runner-up (54%) indicates meaningful uncertainty—no consensus on whether the match will be low-scoring or goal-heavy
- K League 2 matches typically average 2.5–3.2 goals per game; final probability should anchor to historical scoring norms for these specific clubs

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

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