# Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC

> Ulsan HD FC leads at 36%, runner-up 35% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 2 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc
Updated: 2026-05-03T14:35:31.336Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-05

## Headline

- Leader: Ulsan HD FC at 36%
- Runner-up: Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 35%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $95

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD FC | 36¢ | +2pp | $86 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-ulsan-hd-fc-polymarket-0x7f5e73a1e1d8ef935c37b02bfa22007d8fdbfefe92f85d66f2fffcb07a73c050 |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 35¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-gimcheon-sangmu-polymarket-0x24402c66279d4c6af70519b7aacf7d2621ac15bc7c7e8357fe3f57e5aa071a29 |
| Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) | 29¢ | −1pp | $9 | polymarket | /markets/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc-draw-gimcheon-sa-polymarket-0xce05614d03ca739ac993c8183c252089449df98b1a94e557415259d5e12facdf |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Ulsan HD FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 33 | 39 | 38 |
| 2026-05-02 | 35 | 38 | 29 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 | — | 28 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-02 · Draw (Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs. Ulsan HD FC) −9pp 38→29¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 36% probability represents the market's assessment that Ulsan HD FC will win an upcoming match against Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Markets are pricing Ulsan as a slight favorite, with relatively balanced odds against both a Gimcheon victory and a draw. The price reflects K League team performance data, recent form, and head-to-head history. Movement would likely follow injury announcements, lineup confirmations, or shifts in either team's recent results. The match itself will resolve all uncertainty once played, with the outcome determined by goals scored across 90+ minutes of regulation play.

### Key factors

- Ulsan HD FC's win probability (36%) implies Gimcheon Sangmu FC is priced as a slight underdog, with 36% of outcomes distributed among other results (draw, Gimcheon win)
- Over 1.5 goals markets at 73¢ suggest traders expect a moderately attacking fixture; under 4.5 at 13¢ indicates low probability of very high-scoring outcomes
- Relatively low trading volume ($86 24h on the main winner contract) suggests limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information such as team news or weather
- K League seasonal form, recent head-to-head records, and player availability for both clubs will materially influence the outcome
- A draw is priced at 28¢, only 8 percentage points below either pure win outcome, indicating genuine three-way competitive uncertainty

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gimcheon-sangmu-fc-vs-ulsan-hd-fc

## License

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