# Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Ōita Trinita

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 41% across 20 contracts — refreshed 1 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-ita-trinita
Updated: 2026-05-03T17:35:56.903Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Probability: 41% (liquidity-weighted across 20 contracts)
- Venue: Polymarket (20 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (20)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto) | 35¢ | +2pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-draw-giravanz-polymarket-0xeb0a6cc422ff6d58db99321e3c9d089d05c2465f8d1fc25934db7618e43fe3e4 |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 36¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-roasso-kumamo-polymarket-0xb333ae12051b405aedb9d3046a9e6a8a343105ee0226d38a42f872d8ac0e847a |
| O/U 2.5 | 52¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x439e354b22d6e164f4d31f50551836df502e9225f10f7da1eb62ecd6538682f7 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0x58a7057d70e71e5d33a2d634f3f5da7546509c59bf8117285f1e3f6ee2f5db3a |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x59b299fc4021607125c252f41a631c6fe859873f9a60438610be69cc56a22b8a |
| Ōita Trinita (-1.5) | 33¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-it-polymarket-0x88fc7b7ae3b2ecf42ec2828e86c4701f3039aaadb163445ff377480f84be35d4 |
| O/U 4.5 | 28¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0xb972b717ce93cb571f24032c012df313ea81fdfbbcd9f811f1391b9aae43e015 |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x226e5a60c6827a47ba6097d73d8b6ed1c59114d76f6949972060d9216d2144b2 |
| Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x13917b41d289056020830b44b9e5adfa7a55621c5544f6801a5b4beb03442bc5 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x1b2ae8f24c71c828c0cf1ecff8f67b600d8512567e2033b98389a3982bf6f42c |
| O/U 1.5 | 60¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc0ca93277e47ebfeac4868ad303dfb8d5487eab193fc355d227ffd9279f526cd |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ou-polymarket-0xc65258b729eb812ed035c1f0a9f1f8908d226d1e1f9deb24b21d1857e9536bb8 |
| Kagoshima United FC (-1.5) | 32¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-ka-polymarket-0x9d9d399d5805b6d04d783b7e23110f9c3a564d25f53a1d111bb05c7ca2ee1252 |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x9e0a7987caa0a0cba2c2609f78114e6e7c049596c5a987210b8c46b666dd5073 |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5) | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x2185500c2904f81e9b563d66af1ed9780c27224d2de0ed45aaba8269dc2c9d13 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-more-markets-bo-polymarket-0xe0cdd90db277e87907e88ff3672e492d88afe0c187c708157a5d9fb951da7a6d |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū | 48¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-giravanz-kita-polymarket-0x293b9d327a24d724186373053ec50f6e9bf4e2a4153360eb8d088aa5778b3984 |
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x0a8c9d49db24553dbeccb4e8f5626d854f310d5d91eaf433d38804449c1d15b7 |
| Kagoshima United FC | 51¢ | +1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-kagoshima-unite-polymarket-0x915eb3ae12983ea65de0a0af4e6c04fff81685b5496e8409fc6ea41b8742ea84 |
| Draw (Kagoshima United FC vs. Ōita Trinita) | 34¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/kagoshima-united-fc-vs-ita-trinita-draw-kagoshima-polymarket-0xf07ff2d11763d1fadfea139e1470687ff13bd1e03d9f30fe65ff4009230b3a60 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-01 | 42 |
| 2026-05-02 | 42 |
| 2026-05-03 | 41 |

_3 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Ōita Trinita (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This 43% probability reflects the market's assessment that Giravanz Kitakyūshū will defeat Ōita Trinita in their upcoming match. The current level suggests near-parity between the teams, with slight skepticism about Giravanz as favorites. Key drivers include recent form in the J2 League, head-to-head historical performance, and squad availability. The contract data shows mixed signals: modest odds against both teams scoring (51¢) and relatively low confidence in either team's goal-differential outcomes. The main resolution catalyst is the scheduled match itself, which will determine the outright winner and settle the binary outcome. Market depth appears shallow given minimal 24-hour volume, suggesting limited recent activity and potentially wider bid-ask spreads than implied by the 43% midpoint.

### Key factors

- Giravanz Kitakyūshū's current J2 League standing and recent match results relative to Ōita Trinita's form entering the fixture
- Both teams' goal-scoring and defensive efficiency metrics this season, reflected in the 51¢ both-teams-to-score contract suggesting moderate-to-low combined scoring expectation
- Head-to-head historical record between the clubs in direct matchups over the past 2-3 seasons
- Injury or suspension status of key players for either team, affecting squad quality at time of match
- Market volume concentration showing $0 24-hour volume across all contracts, indicating minimal recent position changes or new information flowing into pricing

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-ita-trinita
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=giravanz-kitakysh-vs-ita-trinita

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