# Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto - More Markets

> O/U 1.5 leads at 65%, runner-up 51% across 9 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 6 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets
Updated: 2026-05-03T16:05:51.623Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: O/U 1.5 at 65%
- Runner-up: Both Teams to Score at 51%
- Outcomes: 9 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (9 contracts)
- 24h volume: $0

## Bound contracts (9)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O/U 1.5 | 65¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x0a8c9d49db24553dbeccb4e8f5626d854f310d5d91eaf433d38804449c1d15b7 |
| Both Teams to Score | 51¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x1b2ae8f24c71c828c0cf1ecff8f67b600d8512567e2033b98389a3982bf6f42c |
| O/U 2.5 | 50¢ | −1pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x59b299fc4021607125c252f41a631c6fe859873f9a60438610be69cc56a22b8a |
| O/U 3.5 | 41¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x9e0a7987caa0a0cba2c2609f78114e6e7c049596c5a987210b8c46b666dd5073 |
| Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) | 33¢ | +3pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x13917b41d289056020830b44b9e5adfa7a55621c5544f6801a5b4beb03442bc5 |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-1.5) | 32¢ | +2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x226e5a60c6827a47ba6097d73d8b6ed1c59114d76f6949972060d9216d2144b2 |
| Roasso Kumamoto (-1.5) | 32¢ | +5pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x3e73ddd978196e7caf02ee47b744d06aef22aa50bc766c0887800403c7cab26f |
| O/U 4.5 | 29¢ | ±0 | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0xb972b717ce93cb571f24032c012df313ea81fdfbbcd9f811f1391b9aae43e015 |
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū (-2.5) | 26¢ | −2pp | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-more-markets-polymarket-0x2185500c2904f81e9b563d66af1ed9780c27224d2de0ed45aaba8269dc2c9d13 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | O/U 1.5 | Both Teams to Score | O/U 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 62 | 51 | 52 |
| 2026-05-03 | — | 53 | 51 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-05-03 · Roasso Kumamoto (-1.5) +5pp 33→38¢ · polymarket
- 2026-05-03 · Roasso Kumamoto (-2.5) +3pp 34→37¢ · polymarket

## Analysis

This market reflects the estimated probability that Giravanz Kitakyūshū will win their match against Roasso Kumamoto. The current 51% probability, derived from Polymarket contracts, suggests a lean toward Giravanz but with substantial uncertainty. The probability is primarily shaped by recent form, head-to-head history, and squad availability. The match itself—scheduled as a single knockout or league contest—represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this uncertainty. Volume has been moderate across related markets, indicating reasonable but not exceptional liquidity for this fixture. Shifts in this probability will likely reflect team news, injury updates, or changes in betting positioning in the days leading to kickoff.

### Key factors

- Giravanz is priced at 51% to win, indicating marginal favoritism rather than strong consensus confidence
- The runner-up outcome sits at 38%, suggesting a distributed probability landscape across multiple potential results
- Polymarket aggregation across 5 contracts shows this reflects genuine trading activity rather than a single outlier position
- Related football markets on the platform show typical volume patterns for mid-tier league fixtures
- The probability will be resolved by match outcome, making team form, injuries, and pre-match developments concrete price drivers

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

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