# Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto

> Giravanz Kitakyūshū leads at 47%, runner-up 37% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed just now.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto
Updated: 2026-05-03T15:35:06.309Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-06

## Headline

- Leader: Giravanz Kitakyūshū at 47%
- Runner-up: Roasso Kumamoto at 37%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $6

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giravanz Kitakyūshū | 47¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-giravanz-kita-polymarket-0x293b9d327a24d724186373053ec50f6e9bf4e2a4153360eb8d088aa5778b3984 |
| Roasso Kumamoto | 37¢ | ±0 | $3 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-roasso-kumamo-polymarket-0xb333ae12051b405aedb9d3046a9e6a8a343105ee0226d38a42f872d8ac0e847a |
| Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto) | 35¢ | +2pp | $3 | polymarket | /markets/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto-draw-giravanz-polymarket-0xeb0a6cc422ff6d58db99321e3c9d089d05c2465f8d1fc25934db7618e43fe3e4 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Roasso Kumamoto | Draw (Giravanz Kitakyūshū vs. Roasso Kumamoto) |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | 37 | 35 |
| 2026-05-03 | 37 | 37 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

This 61% probability reflects market pricing on whether the match between Giravanz Kitakyūshū and Roasso Kumamoto will see more than 1.5 total goals scored. The relatively high threshold suggests traders expect a moderately open contest; the gap between the O/U 1.5 contract (61¢) and Both Teams to Score (51¢) indicates some uncertainty about goal distribution. Resolution depends on the match outcome, scheduled for 2026-05-03. The contracts priced around break-even points—Giravanz (-1.5) at 38¢ and Roasso (-2.5) at 34¢—suggest market participants see a competitive fixture without a clear dominant outcome favoring either team by 2+ goals. Liquidity is minimal across all contracts, reflecting low trading volume and potentially wide bid-ask spreads.

### Key factors

- Both Teams to Score contract trades 10 percentage points lower than O/U 1.5, suggesting the market prices a meaningful likelihood of 2+ goals without both teams scoring (e.g., 2-0 outcomes)
- Giravanz (-1.5) trades at 38¢ versus Roasso (-2.5) at 34¢, indicating asymmetric win-by-margin expectations favoring Giravanz by a small margin
- Zero 24-hour volume across all contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity and potentially stale pricing that may not reflect late-breaking information
- J-League 2 form, recent head-to-head records, and team defensive records directly determine whether matches typically exceed 1.5-goal totals
- Match occurs on 2026-05-03; weather conditions, team absences, or tactical shifts announced before kickoff could cause rapid repricing

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=giravanz-kitakysh-vs-roasso-kumamoto

## License

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