# Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova FC

> Goiás EC leads at 45%, runner-up 31% across 3 winner-take-all outcomes — refreshed 4 h ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-fc
Updated: 2026-05-09T00:05:13.095Z
Category: general
Status: active
Closes: 2026-05-09

## Headline

- Leader: Goiás EC at 45%
- Runner-up: Draw (Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova FC) at 31%
- Outcomes: 3 (winner-take-all)
- Venue: Polymarket (3 contracts)
- 24h volume: $77

## Bound contracts (3)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goiás EC | 45¢ | −1pp | $37 | polymarket | /markets/gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-fc-gois-ec-polymarket-0x782addae33bc2f1c04445e2b42b79de2bc7dda70918afaa7b3996618c3c83441 |
| Draw (Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova FC) | 31¢ | — | $0 | polymarket | /markets/gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-fc-draw-gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-polymarket-0x642ad13c9239e87f264ddb950661915d0c978a8631b45fa6a5be7333af5dde81 |
| Vila Nova FC | 25¢ | +2pp | $40 | polymarket | /markets/gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-fc-vila-nova-fc-polymarket-0x8b0707e2c6c0a000515eabd5d5c0c6deadf27a25195022897d983b0b65ab0894 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Goiás EC | Draw (Goiás EC vs. Vila Nova FC) | Vila Nova FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | 45 | — | 25 |
| 2026-05-07 | 44 | 31 | 27 |

_2 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## Analysis

The probability represents traders' assessment that Vila Nova FC has a 38% chance of winning this match against Goiás EC, with Goiás EC at 37% and a draw at 32%. The market is effectively pricing this as a competitive encounter with no clear favorite. Outcomes depend on team form, injuries, home-field advantage, and recent head-to-head performance. The match result will resolve this uncertainty when the game is played, likely determining whether Vila Nova or Goiás advances or whether points are split in what appears to be a closely-matched contest.

### Key factors

- Current market prices show Vila Nova FC (38¢) only 1¢ ahead of Goiás EC (37¢), indicating traders view this as an evenly contested fixture
- Draw probability at 32¢ suggests meaningful likelihood of a stalemate, reducing confidence in either team's ability to secure a decisive victory
- Recent form, head-to-head records, and injury status of key players would materially shift odds in either team's favor
- Home-field advantage (if applicable) and squad depth at kickoff could be deciding factors in a match where markets see no statistical edge
- Match will be conclusively resolved upon final whistle, eliminating current uncertainty between these three outcome states

## Methodology

Headline is the **leader's price**, not an arithmetic mean — averaging disjoint winner-take-all outcomes is meaningless. Per-outcome prices come from the venue's last-traded mid; cross-venue values are simple means across contracts on each venue.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-fc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gois-ec-vs-vila-nova-fc

## License

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