# Will Gold, S&P 500, or Bitcoin perform best in 2026?

> Liquidity-weighted aggregate at 20% across 1 contract — refreshed 17 min ago.

URL: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gold-vs-sp500-vs-btc
Updated: 2026-06-25T16:20:50.504Z
Category: markets · Topic: bitcoin
Status: active
Closes: 2027-01-01

## Headline

- Probability: 20% (liquidity-weighted across 1 contract)
- Venue: Kalshi (1 contract)
- 24h volume: $961

## Bound contracts (1)

| Outcome | Price | 24h | Volume | Venue | Slug |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? | 20¢ | +1pp | $961 | kalshi | /markets/will-bitcoin-outperform-gold-in-2026-kalshi-kxbtcvsgold-26 |

## 30-day trajectory

| Day | Aggregate |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-26 | 33 |
| 2026-06-11 | 22 |
| 2026-06-18 | 24 |
| 2026-06-25 | 21 |

_31 days of price history captured. Each row is the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures._

## What moved the line

- 2026-06-21 · Will Bitcoin outperform gold in 2026? −9pp 25→16¢ · kalshi

## Methodology

Probability is **liquidity-weighted** across all bound Kalshi/Polymarket contracts: Σ(price × volume) ÷ Σ(volume). 30-day trajectory uses the daily mean of intraday 5-min captures. 24h delta = today's mean − yesterday's mean. Movement events are ≥3pp daily moves in the last 7 days.

## How to use this data

- HTML: https://simplefunctions.dev/odds/gold-vs-sp500-vs-btc
- JSON: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/odds?slug=gold-vs-sp500-vs-btc
- Topic hub: https://simplefunctions.dev/predictions/bitcoin

## License

CC-BY-4.0. Attribute "SimpleFunctions" with a link to https://simplefunctions.dev. See https://simplefunctions.dev/legal for terms.